Terrific Ten: Mountain West epic; Gators, Tide hit road

TCU quarterback Andy Dalton will lead the Horned Frogs against Utah in their quest to stay unbeaten. (Icon SMI)

 

1.) @No. 4 TCU 31, No. 16 Utah (+19½) 20 - The Frogs should be able to run on Utah as the Utes have given up over 200 yards rushing on five occasions. TCU has many facets to its running attack. The Frogs are sixth in the nation with 242 yards per game. The Frogs rushing defense vs. Utah's Eddie Wide is also a key. TCU is seventh in the nation, giving up only 90 yards per outing. Wide has a string of six consecutive games over 100 yards and 17 rushing touchdowns this season. During the last two games, which were resounding wins over UNLV and San Diego State, TCU has scored on an amazing 16 of 29 drives in outscoring those two opponents, 96-12. The Frogs quarterback, Andy Dalton, complements their ground attack perfectly with only three interceptions on the season.

 

2.) No. 1 Florida (-15½) 30, @South Carolina 14 - The Gamecocks appear to be in their usual late season swoon after consecutive losses to Tennessee and Arkansas. Stephen Garcia has three straight 300+ passing games for the Gamecocks, but will need that and a complementary running game to have a shot at the Gators. Stopping the run has been an issue for South Carolina, which is bad news based on the fact that Florida is eighth in the country in rushing at 242 yards per game. There is major irony in Florida having a prolific running game and also having the number two defense and number one scoring defense in the nation. Current Gamecocks coach Steve Spurrier carved his legend with his crafty, creative passing game in Gainesville.

 

3.) No. 2 Alabama (-12½) 26, @Mississippi State 10 - Starkville at night could create major issues if the Tide is not hitting on all defensive cylinders or is in a giving mood with turnovers. Those are two areas Alabama has not had to worry about with Nick Saban at the helm. Alabama has only 10 turnovers this season, four of those in a 20-6 win over South Carolina. The Crimson Tide rush defense is second in the nation (68.2 ypg) and faces the nation's 12th best rushing attack in Mississippi State (219 ypg). Anthony Dixon is eighth in the nation for MSU, a spot he solidified two weeks ago with 252 yards on 33 carries against Kentucky.

 

4.) @No. 5 Cincinnati (-9) 35, No. 25 West Virginia 17 - The skeptics are jumping off the Bearcats' bandwagon after they surrendered 45 points to UConn in the 47-45 fireworks extravaganza last week. Further analysis shows an 87-yard Huskies punt return and then three touchdowns against a softer UC defense in the fourth quarter as the Bearcats were trying to burn clock and win the game. So, the 45 surrendered points are somewhat misleading as Brian Kelly's squad still only allows 16.5 ppg (16th in the nation). Zach Collaros starts again at quarterback as he has basically assumed Tony Pike's job although Pike was out due to injury. WVU has been shaky in its last two games with a loss at South Florida and then a 17-9 win over Louisville that saw the Mountaineers sputter offensively. UC is a (+13) in turnover ratio while WVU is (-5). The Bearcats still have not lost a fumble through nine games.

 

5.) @No. 11 Ohio State (-16½) 26, No. 10 Iowa 7 - Two top-rated defenses square off. Of importance is how Iowa mentally heals after the Hawkeyes' 17-10 loss to Northwestern. Iowa scored on its first two possessions then turned the ball over on the last three of the first half as the Wildcats converted those into points. Ricky Stanzi is out at quarterback for Iowa due to injury, so inexperienced James Vanderberg will be under pressure immediately. Despite his 14 interceptions, Stanzi was Iowa's offense as the running game has struggled all season, even before Adam Robinson was injured against Michigan State. OSU will have a sound defensive game plan and if the Buckeyes play solid fundamental football, they should have a relatively easy time. Iowa mastered the great escape in five games before last week.

 

6.) @No. 9 USC 20, Stanford (+11) 14 - The Trojans end the season with three key Pac-10 outings at the Coliseum. Win these and one Oregon loss spells another Rose Bowl trip out of the tough Pac-10 in what has been a rebuilding season for USC. Stanford is up first, and the Cardinal, under Jim Harbaugh, have streaked to a 6-3 mark which could easily be 8-1 if not for blown leads in the fourth quarter of losses to Wake Forest and Arizona. Stopping runner Toby Gerhart is always the first order of business against Stanford. He has netted 16 touchdowns while rushing for 135 ypg (second nationally). He went for a season-high 223 and three scores in last week's 51-42 victory over Oregon. Almost 40% of the Trojans' opponents' rushing yardage came from the 391 that the Ducks rang up two weeks ago. Aside from that, USC has allowed only one 100-yard rushing game. The Trojans need to re-carve their offensive niche after struggling the last two weeks. Only seven of 28 USC drives have been for 30+ yards in the last two games.

 

7.) @Ole Miss 22, Tennessee (+4½) 20 - Lane Kiffin has the Vols hitting on all cylinders as they have gone over .500 and could finish at 8-4. They must play well in Oxford this weekend and finish strong against Kentucky and Vanderbilt. The Rebels have struggled with consistency on offense, but Houston Nutt has a good enough defense to help soften those woes. Being susceptible to the run could be a problem, as running back Montario Hardesty is still Tennessee's most legitimate threat. Quarterback Jonathan Crompton has shown up well in completing 33 of 51 passes with seven touchdowns and no interceptions in UT's past two wins over South Carolina and Memphis. Ole Miss needs to maintain the football; quarterback Jevan Snead has surprisingly thrown 13 interceptions.

 

8.) Auburn (+4) 23, @Georgia 21 - The SEC has another huge matchup as bitter rivals battle 'Between the Hedges.' Both the Bulldogs and the Tigers have struggled at times this season. Auburn has had trouble stopping the run, but Georgia has no legitimate feature back to consistently establish the ground game. The Bulldogs have only one 100-yard game on the ground — Richard Samuel’s 117-yard against Arkansas. The Tigers still run the football very well behind Ben Tate, who has six 100-yard games and is 12th in the nation in rushing. The 'Dogs are vulnerable to potent rushing attacks so Tate could be a big problem for Georgia's defense, even in Athens at night.

 

9.) No. 17 Arizona (+1) 28, @Cal 23 - The Wildcats lead the Pac-10 and suffer from East Coast media bias as they have not been mentioned on any outlet, anywhere, at any time. They start with a defense that has allowed only 298 yards per game and have been able to bring pressure on opposing quarterbacks with 23 sacks, 7½ by defensive lineman Ricky Elmore. Their running game is their strength as they actually have totaled 536 yards on 100 carries in their last two games as both Matt Scott and Nick Booth picked up for the injured Nic Grigsby in last week's 48-7 walloping of Washington State. Cal's rush defense will have to fire on all cylinders, even at home. The Bears held Jacquizz Rodgers of Oregon State to 67 yards last week and two of their last three opponents have had less than 100 yards.

 

@No. 12 Pitt (-6½) 27, Notre Dame 20 - C'mon, Charlie Weis, where are you? Let's hear some of those arrogant pontifications about returning Notre Dame to the days of Knute Rockne. You came in with that attitude, why not go down swingin' with it? Truthfully, ND will never go there again because athletes abound all across the college football landscape. Put the Irish in the SEC, Pac-10, Big 12 or Big Ten and .500 is a reach. Weis is in trouble and although a win here would be great for the Irish, it probably will not save Weis. Pitt needs to defend Jimmy Clausen, who has been the heart of the Irish all season. The Panthers will bring pressure as they lead the nation in sacks. Greg Romeus and Myles Caragein get pressure from the front of the line for Dave Wannstedt as they have 7½ and 5 sacks respectively. Senior linebacker Adam Gunn is also a major part in the Panthers' 39 sacks. Pitt rusher Dion Lewis is seventh in the nation with six 100+ rushing games and 12 scores. The Irish just finished getting ravaged by Navy's triple-option and while Pitt is not a triple-option team, Lewis is good enough to carry the Panthers to a substantial victory.

 

SEC:

Kentucky (-3) 17, @Vanderbilt 13

@No. 8 LSU 38, Louisiana Tech (+24½) 17

@Arkansas (-13½) 37, Troy 14

 

Pac-10:

@No. 23 Oregon State 34, Washington (+12) 23

UCLA (-17½)  38, @Washington State 13

@No. 13 Oregon 31, Arizona State (+17) 17

 

Big East:

@Rutgers (+1) 24, South Florida 20

@Louisville 27, Syracuse (+7½) 24

 

ACC:

 

@Georgia Tech (-12½) 31, Duke 7

@NC State (+8) 24, Clemson 23

@Wake Forest (-5) 21, Florida State 14

No. 21 Virginia Tech (-17½) 28, @Maryland 7

No. 14 Miami (-3) 28, @North Carolina 20

Boston College (-4) 31, @Virginia 17

 

Big Ten:

@No. 18 Penn State 34, Indiana (+25½) 10

@No. 20 Wisconsin 30, Michigan (+8½) 24

@Illinois (-4½) 31, Northwestern 28

@Purdue (+3) 27, Michigan State 23

 

Big 12:

@No. 3 Texas (-23½) 45, Baylor 20

Missouri (even) 30, @Kansas State 26

@Iowa State 23, Colorado (+5½) 19

@Kansas (+3½) 20, Nebraska 14

@Oklahoma 27, Texas A&M (+20) 13

Texas Tech (+4) 34, @No. 19 Oklahoma State 30

 

Conference USA:

No. 15 Houston (-4½) 44, @Central Florida 27

UAB (even) 23, @Memphis 20

@SMU 34, UTEP (+8) 27

Tulane (+2½) 29, @Rice 22

@Marshall (+3) 24, Southern Miss 21

East Carolina (+5) 37, @Tulsa 30

 

Mountain West:

No. 22 BYU (-26½) 48, @New Mexico 17

@Air Force (-17) 34, UNLV 16

@San Diego State (-7½) 31, Wyoming 23

 

WAC:

@Utah State (-12½) 31, San Jose State 17

@No. 6 Boise State 42, Idaho (+31½) 17

@Nevada 44, Fresno State (+7) 38

@Hawaii (-20) 41, New Mexico State 21

 

Overall: 349-97 (39-8, last week); vs. spread: 229-186 (22-21, last week)