Dec 29, 2016; Birmingham, AL, USA; South Florida Bulls quarterback Quinton Flowers (9) scores a touchdown during the first quarter against the South Carolina Gamecocks in the 2016 Birmingham Bowl at Legion Field. Photo Credit: Shanna Lockwood-USA TODAY Sports
By Paul Borden
All the ingredients seem to be there for the USF Bulls to have a big season — the biggest of the program’s 21-year history.
With 18 returning starters from a team that won a school-record 11 games in 2016.
Among returnees are a senior quarterback who ranked in the Top 10 of the American Athletic Conference in both rushing and passing yardage, a deep receiving corps that is made for the up-tempo approach the Bulls are seeking on offense, and a veteran offensive line that in 2016 powered the Bulls to school records in total offense (6,650 yards), rushing (3,714), and touchdowns (77).
Defensively, the Bulls welcome back nine starters plus a 10th player who logged five starts among his 13 appearances. Yes, they gave up too many points (nearly 32 a game) and yards (482) in 2016, but they are anxious to make up for shortcomings under new coordinator Brian Jean-Mary. Plus new head coach Charlie Strong is known for putting out strong defensive teams.
“No one’s expectations are as big as our own,” senior linebacker Auggie Sanchez said at the start of fall camp.
Little wonder that the Bulls, who finished last season ranked 19th in both media and coaches’ polls after finishing 11-2, were an overwhelming choice to win the AAC title, getting 26 of 30 media votes, and a unanimous pick to capture the East Division crown.
Under the circumstances, a conference title and an undefeated season are reasonable targets.
That opens up a larger target: Can the Bulls attain the ultimate goal of becoming the first team from the Group of Five conferences to garner a berth in the College Football Playoffs?
No team from the AAC, Conference USA, Mid-American, Mountain West, or Sun Belt has come close to getting one of the top four spots in the final CFP rankings in the three years of its existence. Western Michigan’s No. 15 ranking last year was the closest so far, which got the 13-0 Broncos into the Cotton Bowl. Other highest final rankings were No. 18 for Houston in 2015 and No. 20 for Boise State in 2014. Navy and Temple are the only other non-Power 5 teams to finish the regular season in the CFP’s Top 25, both in each of the last two years.
The highest any non-Power 5 team has been ranked at any point was in 2015 when Memphis debuted at No. 13 in the first CFP rankings of that season.
If quarterback Quinton Flowers and his receiving corps of Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Ryeshene Bronson and Tyre McCants produce as expected and veteran running backs D’Ernest Johnson and Darius Tice fill the gap left by the departure of 1,000-yard rusher Marlon Mack, the Bulls easily could better that record.
But to get into the top four, USF faces an obstacle outside its control.
The schedule.
In addition to eight league games, their four non-conference foes are San Jose State, Stony Brook, Illinois, Massachusetts. None of the three FBS teams are coming off winning seasons, and Stony Brook is an FCS program, not the kind of foe that will help the Bulls’ rating.
The problem is not of their making — at one point both Michigan State and Wisconsin were on their 2017 card. But the Spartans exercised their buyout clause, and the Badgers eventually asked to move their meeting to 2018.
Oh, what might have been.
The Bulls’ biggest hope now is that ACC foes Houston, UCF, Temple, and Tulsa have big enough seasons so wins over them would carry more weight. Enough to get into the playoffs? Not likely. But a berth in the Orange, Fiesta, Cotton, or Peach — bowls in the CFP rotation but not this season’s playoff — would be a nice consolation.
–Paul Borden covers college football in Florida for The Sports Xchange.
