1. ALABAMA
This time, good to the last drop
Alabama had the best college football team in America for 53,999 seconds of game time last season. Slackers. You let up for one second … Never had one team done so much for so long, never losing, never trailing in the fourth quarter, until the final play from scrimmage in the final game of the season, when Clemson’s Deshaun Watson connected with Hunter Renfrow on a 2-yard touchdown pass for a 35-31 lead with one dang second to go. Maybe that serves as motivation this time around for Alabama. Maybe not. Sometimes, all that mind-game stuff is overrated. You know what’s not overrated? Talent. Yeah, talent. Let’s not over-think this. Alabama has the biggest, fastest, strongest, the most-est of the best-est. That’s it.
Jan 9, 2017; Tampa, FL, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide quarterback Jalen Hurts (2) runs to the end zone for a touchdown against the Clemson Tigers during the fourth quarter in the 2017 College Football Playoff National Championship Game at Raymond James Stadium. Photo Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
THE GOOD NEWS: Alabama averaged 38.8 points a game last season behind true freshman quarterback Jalen Hurts, and its offense gets less stodgy every year. New offensive coordinator Brian Daboll put his spring focus on further developing the vertical passing game, so he can put that in his back pocket for the rare times when the running game — which goes, like, six deep at tailback — isn’t dominant. The athletic Hurts has Calvin Ridley, Robert Foster and new stars in the passing game. The defense … well, it’s still a Nick Saban defense. With Da’Ron Payne and Da’Shawn Hand up front, Shaun Dion Hamilton and Rashaan Evans at linebacker, and Minkah Fitzpatrick and Ronnie Harrison on the back end, the Tide has a chance to repeat as the nation’s stingiest defense. Get this: Alabama hasn’t finished WORSE than seventh in scoring defense for nine consecutive seasons .
THE BAD NEWS: We get that it is never easy replacing so much NFL talent on defense — Jonathan Allen, Rueben Foster, Marlon Humphrey, Dalvin Tomlinson, Ryan Anderson, Tim Williams. That does sting. On offense, the Tide will try to tip-toe through a potential injury minefield, because behind Hurts are two true freshmen. Beware Bama’s opener (vs. Florida State) and closer (at Auburn).
OUR CALL: Is Deshaun Watson still playing college football? No? OK, then. That settles it. Nick Saban is going to win his fifth national championship at Alabama and sixth national championship overall, tying Bear Bryant for most all-time. Cue the parade through Title Town.
2. USC
In Sam, we trust
There was some thought that coach Clay Helton waited too long last season to insert redshirt freshman quarterback Sam Darnold into the starting lineup, but maybe he slow played it just right. The Trojans started 1-2 and then lost Darnold’s first start, but the USC slow burn caught fire with a nine-game winning streak, capped by the Rose Bowl thriller over Penn State. It’s all great again in 2017, with Darnold having developed a presence that makes him seem like he’s been playing in the NFL for a decade.
THE GOOD NEWS: USC added immediate-impact playmakers by closing large on Signing Day. They’ll join junior Ronald Jones II — the Next Great USC Running Back — and emerging WR Deontay Burnett (13 Rose Bowl receptions) to help Darnold. DT Rasheem Green, LB Cameron Smith, CB Iman Marshall have loads of upside.
THE BAD NEWS: A rebuilding offensive line will be tested early — Week Two vs. Stanford, Week Three vs. Texas. Speaking of the schedule, the Trojans have to play 12 weeks in a row because the Pac-12 put USC’s “bye” at the end of the regular season and before the league title game.
OUR CALL: We have been burned by this bet before, but we’re going all in on USC to run the table and reach the College Football Playoff.
3. OHIO STATE
From semifinal to chicken salad
Nine first downs. A scant 215 yards of total offense. By God, zero points. Clemson’s 31-0 victory over the Buckeyes in last season’s playoff semifinal was a complete and utter shutdown — and, oh, you’d better believe it was embarrassing to Urban Meyer. It wasn’t exactly a picnic either for quarterback J.T. Barrett, starter of 29 games and the school record-holder with 100 total touchdowns. The motivation for 2017: It’s real, baby.
THE GOOD NEWS: Have we mentioned J.T. Barrett? Look, everybody has a bad game. Barrett, who has lost only three times as a starter, hasn’t had many. The Buckeyes might not be lights-out offensively — are the pass catchers good enough? — but they’ll be brilliant up front on defense. One wonders if there are enough snaps to go around for hell-bent pass rushers Tyquan Lewis, Jalyn Holmes, Sam Hubbard and Nick Bosa.
THE BAD NEWS: Have we mentioned the pass-catchers? The top returning wideout is sophomore K.J. Hill, whose stat line read 18-262-1 last year. It’s an odd area of weakness — on paper, anyway — for a program that has recruited as top-of-the-charts as this one.
OUR CALL: Meyer has earned our steadfast belief in his ability to make chicken salad out of whatever you want to call that performance against Clemson.
4. FLORIDA STATE
Protect QB, win ACC
One thing — one particular score line — sticks out like the sorest of thumbs when looking at the Seminoles: their preposterous 63-20 defeat at Louisville last September. It rocked the college football world. It raised all sorts of culture questions about FSU (which it will try to answer against the visiting Cardinals on Oct. 21, 2017). Yet the team rebounded admirably, winning seven of its last eight, the only loss coming in forgivable fashion after a late TD by eventual national champ Clemson.
THE GOOD NEWS: Deondre Francois is back — standing on two feet and everything. Did any quarterback get hit harder than Francois did as a redshirt freshman? Yet he survived and proved himself to be a terrific player. True freshman RB Cam Akers is a drop-dead instant star. Safety Derwin James is one of the most talented defensive players in the land.
THE BAD NEWS: There’s the whole protecting-the-quarterback thing, which didn’t go so well in 2016. Defensively, the Seminoles were unthinkably soft in some games, although they finished the season well on that side of the ball. But are they ready to fly around and intimidate from the get-go?
OUR CALL: There’s a leap of faith involved in picking this team to come out of the ACC. That might mean having to win at Clemson in November.
5. OKLAHOMA STATE
Gonna take some Bedlam
OK, so we know what you’re thinking: Really? This high? Yep. Clearly, it means we’ve got Mike Gundy’s team winning the Big 12. OSU’s eight wins in its last nine games last season has something to do with it. The bowl romp over Colorado — hello, 38-8 — has a lot to do with it. The home date for Bedlam against Oklahoma in November sure as heck doesn’t hurt, either.
Dec 29, 2016; San Antonio, TX, USA; Oklahoma State Cowboys quarterback Mason Rudolph (2) throws a 23-yard touchdown pass in the third quarter against the Colorado Buffaloes during the 2016 Alamo Bowl at Alamodome. Photo Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
THE GOOD NEWS: The offense will be, in a word, sick. QB Mason Rudolph is primed for Heisman candidacy. WR James Washington rolls out of bed catching deep balls. RB Justice Hill is one of Gundy’s most promising yet. Win one shootout after another? The Cowboys are as equipped as ever to do it.
THE BAD NEWS: Defensive tackle is a question mark. Linebacker is a question mark. Who are we kidding? Defense at OSU is always a question mark. Coordinator Glenn Spencer must coax another turnover-heavy season from his unit for the Cowboys to live up to this ranking.
OUR CALL: Bedlam? We’d fast-forward to it right now if we could. Gundy’s program still can’t quite match Bob Stoops’ program in terms of overall talent, but sometimes timing is everything. And with the new Big 12 title game set-up, they might have to do it twice.
6. PENN STATE
Return to Roses is possible
What was more surprising, the way the Nittany Lions lost January’s Rose Bowl — surrendering a 14-point fourth-quarter lead to USC and going down on a long field goal at the gun — or the fact they made it to Pasadena in the first place? The latter seems to be the easy answer. James Franklin’s third season at the helm was a spectacular success.
THE GOOD NEWS: The essential formula in 2016 boiled down to hanging in there on defense so the offense could carry the day. Offense again seems to be the better side of the ball, with Trace McSorley and Saquon Barkley one of the best quarterback-running back duos out there. Yet the defense, rich in returning starters, should be markedly better. The pass rush looks potent.
THE BAD NEWS: Depth is still an issue; lots of young guys will be rounding out the two-deep. The unbalanced Big Ten schedule includes five road games — at Iowa, Northwestern, Ohio State, Michigan State and Maryland. This’ll take some heavy lifting.
OUR CALL: There’s a chance the Nits will be favored 11 times — all except for the one in Columbus. Anything less than double-digit victories would be disappointing. A potential return to the Roses would mean a CFP semi. Don’t count ‘em out.
7. CLEMSON
How much did one guy matter?
It isn’t often that a defending national champ is ranked this low the following preseason. Is the departure of quarterback Deshaun Watson the long and the short of why? Pretty much. The expected ascension of Florida State is part of it, too, as is the Tigers’ schedule. But who’s been better than Team Dabo the last couple of years? Nobody.
THE GOOD NEWS: The defense seems ready to take the baton and sprint out to the front. The Tigers will be wicked up front. Christian Wilkins, Clelin Ferrell, Austin Bryant … and it doesn’t stop there. Can’t wait to see how well insanely large Dexter Lawrence does. Coordinator Brent Venables is a happy dude.
THE BAD NEWS: It’s not just that Watson is off to the NFL, it’s that no one has an inkling who will replace him. Kelly Bryant looks the part, but he has aim issues. Zerrick Cooper looks promising, but he never was intended to be Plan A. Maybe five-star freshman Hunter Johnson?
OUR CALL: There’s no getting around the uncertainty at the most important position. No. 7 is indeed low for a defending champ, but we admit to wondering if we’re betting too heavily on the Tigers at that spot.
