THE LOWE DOWN

Week Three Lowe Down: Bama, LSU get key SEC Ws

Matt Lowe

September 18, 2015 at 4:19 pm.

Sep 12, 2015; Tuscaloosa, AL, USA;  Alabama Crimson Tide linebacker Denzel Devall (30) and linebacker Ryan Anderson (22) wrap up Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders running back Shane Tucker (1) during the first quarter at Bryant-Denny Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Marvin Gentry-USA TODAY Sports

Sep 12, 2015; Tuscaloosa, AL, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide linebacker Denzel Devall (30) and linebacker Ryan Anderson (22) wrap up Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders running back Shane Tucker (1) during the first quarter at Bryant-Denny Stadium. Marvin Gentry-USA TODAY Sports

Welcome to Week Three of The Lowe Down.

This weekend will finally give us some clarity on which teams are legit contenders and which teams are not.

Sure, the Oregon/Michigan State game last week was a dandy, but a loss for either team wasn’t going to necessarily be the death nail for a College Football Playoff bid. This week, however, especially in the SEC, it could be argued that might be the case for a couple of teams.

The way Ole Miss’ schedule sets up, it will be hard for the Rebels to lose in Tuscaloosa, which is likely, and win the SEC West considering the difficulty of their schedule in October and November.

The same could be said for Alabama. If the Crimson Tide loses to Hugh Freeze’s team this weekend, it could really put Nick Saban’s team behind the eight-ball considering the Crimson Tide still has to play at Texas A&M, at Mississippi State and at Auburn to conclude the year. It’s not out of the question that Bama could win all of those games, but it will be a challenge.

The same could be said for LSU. If the Tigers get upset by the Tigers from Lee County, Ala., it will be tough for Les Miles’ club to beat both Alabama and Ole Miss on the road. Sure, it can be done. But there’s a reason why Auburn hasn’t beaten LSU in Baton Rouge since 1999. It’s extremely hard to win on the road in the best division in America. And that’s why it’s critical to win the big home games if a team expects to make it to Atlanta.

Last week’s record was 25-5, bringing the yearly record to 39-7. To the games we go…

FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 18

No. 9 FSU (2-0) at Boston College (2-0) 7:00 p.m. CT

Last year Boston College lost 20-17 in Tallahassee, so the Eagles will be a confident bunch heading into this matchup. The key for an upset here will be the play of sophomore quarterback Darius Wade, who spearheads a powerful BC rush offense that ranks 15th in the country, and a BC defense that’s currently the best in America.

The Lowe Down: Florida State 23, Boston College 20

SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 19

No. 23 Northwestern (2-0) at Duke (2-0) 11:30 a.m. CT

The Wildcats have jumped out to a 2-0 start behind a strong running game and defense, but they’ll have a tough time getting a road win in Durham. Quarterback Thomas Sirk, a potent passer and runner, has been outstanding in Duke’s first two games, and he’ll be a difference-maker here. So will a good Blue Devil defense led by Jeremy Cash, one of the top defensive players in America.

The Lowe Down: Northwestern 17, Duke 24

No. 14 Georgia Tech (2-0) at No. 8 Notre Dame (2-0) 2:30 p.m. CT Weather: Scattered T-storms, windy

With Malik Zaire out with a season-ending ankle injury, Notre Dame’s success ultimately will come down to how well DeShone Kizer can play behind center.

The redshirt freshman rallied the Irish to a 34-27 win over Virginia last week by completing 8 of 12 passes for two touchdowns, including the game-winner, with 12 seconds remaining in the game, showing poise beyond his years. But Kizer and the Irish face a tough challenge this weekend hosting Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets rush offense, led by outstanding dual-threat QB Justin Thomas and A-Back Broderick Snoddy, is tops in the nation (457.5), and Ted Roof’s defense does a good job at forcing turnovers.

Expect a lot of points in South Bend, but I like Paul Johnson’s bunch to pull out a huge road win.

The Lowe Down: Georgia Tech 41, Notre Dame 34

No. 18 Auburn (2-0) at No. 13 LSU (1-0) 2:30 p.m. CT Weather: Sunny, hot

Quarterback Jeremy Johnson hasn’t quite lived up to the preseason hype as the replacement for Nick Marshall, but the Tigers haven’t been as dynamic in the running game as in years past and a talented offensive line has yet to put it all together, which has led to inconsistency on offense.

Defensively, Auburn has looked good at times. But it also allowed FCS member Jacksonville State to accumulate 438 yards of offense last week. Granted, impact players Carl Lawson (hip), Auburn’s best pass rusher, and Tray Matthews, an impact safety, were out, and veteran corner Josh Holsey was lost for the season, but the Tigers were torched for 277 passing yards. Lawson’s status for Saturday’s game is uncertain, which hurts the visiting team’s chances. When he plays the Tigers are just a much better defense.

When I look at this game, I think LSU’s style plays into what Auburn likes to do defensively, so that will help out Gus Malzahn’s team. But there’s a reason why the Tigers haven’t won in Baton Rouge since 1999. LSU is really hard to beat at home. And that Leonard Fournette guy … man he’s good.

The Lowe Down: Auburn 26, LSU 29

No. 15 Ole Miss (2-0) at No. 2 Alabama (2-0) 8:15 p.m. CT

Ole Miss leads the nation in scoring at 74.5 points per game — yes, 74.5 points per game — but Hugh Freeze’s team will be hard-pressed to keep that pace going entering SEC play.

Yes, Rebels’ QB Chad Kelly has opened to rave reviews, and his strong arm is a threat, but he won’t be able to pick apart Alabama’s defense like he did UT-Martin’s and Fresno State’s. This Crimson Tide bunch is a different animal, especially up front. With All-SEC tackle Laremy Tunsil still out due to eligibility issues, I have a hard time seeing the Rebels marching up and down the field on Alabama. And Kelly better get his best running shoes on because he’ll likely be under constant duress when he goes to the air.

Also, watch for the Crimson Tide running game to come up big in this game. Derrick Henry and Kenyan Drake form a fantastic one-two punch at tailback — almost a perfect blend of power and speed.

The Lowe Down: Alabama 27, Ole Miss 16

No. 19 BYU (2-0) at No. 10 UCLA (2-0) 9:30 p.m. CT

BYU has been the cardiac kings of college football this season with dramatic wins over Nebraska and Boise State, but that ends this weekend when the Cougars travel to Pasadena to take on the red-hot Bruins. Tanner Mangum has done a good job stepping in for the injured Taysom Hill at quarterback, but the freshman may find the going a lot tougher this week squaring off against a good Bruins defense. Conversely, BYU has been terrible against the pass, and that’s not good for the visitors considering hot-shot freshman QB Josh Rosen has been lighting teams up through the air.

The Lowe Down: BYU 20, UCLA 35

In other Saturday games:

Connecticut 17, No. 22 Missouri 24

Air Force 26, No. 4 Michigan State 31

Northern Illinois 17, No.1 Ohio State 49

Troy 16, No. 24 Wisconsin

UTSA 10, No. 25 Oklahoma State 38

South Carolina 17, No. 7 Georgia 30

SMU 24, No. 3 TCU 58

No. 21 Utah 38, Fresno State 14

Stanford 14, No. 6 USC 28