Pac-12 Notebook: It’s wait ’til next year for CFP berth

When it comes to the College Football Playoff, the Pac-12 will have its face pressed against the glass, on the outside looking in.

It’s a no-go this season for the league, which sent Oregon into the mix last year, with the Ducks beating Florida State to reach the national title game before falling to Ohio State. The Pac-12’s hopes of being in the 2015 final four died Saturday night when Oregon beat No. 7 Stanford and No. 10 Utah succumbed in double overtime at Arizona.

Everybody in the league has at least two losses.

The Big Ten, Big 12, ACC and SEC still have multiple teams with zero or one loss — plus 9-1 Notre Dame is out there — so it’s hard to conjure scenarios in which the Pac-12 can get to being part of the playoff discussion.

So, what about the division races?

Stanford is still in good shape in the North, up one-game in the loss column on Oregon with one game to play — vs. Cal this Saturday. Win that, and Stanford will be playing to win its third Pac-12 title game in the five-year history of the event.

The South is still a three-team race, but USC and UCLA have control.

The Trojans are tied at the top of the standings with Utah at 5-2 and hold the head-to-head tiebreaker because of its 42-24 win over the Utes last month. So, if USC wins out — far from a slam dunk, with a game at Oregon and then vs. UCLA — it wins its first Pac-12 South title.

But UCLA, at 4-3 in the league, still plays at Utah and at USC. If it wins both, it will win any tiebreaker … and the division will have a three-loss champ.

Utah needs to beat UCLA and Colorado and hope someone bumps off USC.

“It does not get any easier next week with UCLA coming to town,” Utah coach Kyle Whittingham said after the 37-30 loss in Tucson. “That is the nature of the conference; every week is a challenge.”

ARIZONA (6-5, 3-5)

Game: Arizona 37, Utah 30 (2 OT). Slot receiver Nate Phillips caught a 25-yard touchdown pass from backup quarterback Jerrard Randall to start the second overtime, and the defense came up with a sack and a stop on Utah’s possession to make the lead hold up on Senior Night. The Wildcats, who ended a three-game losing streak, lost QB Anu Solomon to a head injury with 9:25 to go in the game and Randall hadn’t been able to do much until he spotted man coverage on Phillips and took a shot into the end zone. Phillips, amid tight coverage from Boobie Hobbs, caught the pass with his left hand and cradled the ball with both as he fell to the ground.

Takeaway: Arizona’s season looked lost, but the win over the 10th-ranked Utes gave the team — and the fans — something to feel good about as the Wildcats head into their regular-season finale at Arizona State this week. On the other hand, it could be a week of hand-wringing over the status of Solomon. He completed 17-of-27 passes for 277 yards, with two touchdowns and one interception — and he also ran for a season-high 86 yards — against Utah. But it appears he suffered his second concussion of the season, which would put his availability for the Territorial Cup in doubt. That would be another tough blow in a season filled with key injuries, but, as the Utah game showed, there’s plenty of fight left in these bowl-bound Cats.

Next: at Arizona State, Nov. 21

ARIZONA STATE (5-5, 3-4)

Game: Arizona State 27, Washington 17. Running back Kalen Ballage rushed for 92 yards and two touchdowns as the Sun Devils overcame a 17-point deficit. Ballage scored on a 48-yard run with 5:59 remaining to conclude the scoring, one play after CB Kweishi Brown intercepted a Jake Browning pass and returned it 26 yards. The Devils, who picked off Browning three times in the final period, stopped a three-game skid and moved within a win of bowl eligibility with two games remaining. ASU QB Mike Bercovici completed 22-of-34 passes for 253 yards and a touchdown.

Takeaway: Ballage is an absolute load to bring down, and he’s heating up late in the season with 303 yards on 37 carries in his past three games. Pair him with fellow sophomore Demario Richard in the backfield, and that’s two of the Pac-12’s top nine rushers in conference games … and, of course, WR D.J. Foster can also get some touches at his old position, too. ASU, feeling good about itself following the comeback against Washington, is likely to unleash that running strength this week against rival Arizona, which isn’t big up front and is down at least four key linebackers due to injury, including All-American Scooby Wright.

Next: vs. Arizona, Nov. 21

CAL (6-4, 3-4)

Game: Cal 54, Oregon State 24. QB Jared Goff threw six touchdown passes as Cal snapped a four-game skid and became bowl eligible for the first time since 2011. Goff completed 26-of-37 passes for a season-high 453 yards. Sophomore RB Tre Watson gained 110 yards on 10 carries. The Bears scored 17 unanswered points in the second quarter and led 24-10 at halftime. Goff pushed the lead with a 19-yard touchdown pass to wide receiver Darius Powe just one minute into the third period, and the rout was on as Cal put up a school-record 760 yards of offense.

Takeaway: The Bears safely occupy the middle ground in the Pac-12. They were held under 30 points in losses to upper-tier teams Utah, UCLA, USC and Oregon, but Cal feasted once again when the competition was only Oregon State. “We challenged them after four tough weeks to come out and just play relaxed and have fun playing football,” said coach Sonny Dykes. “They did a great job of doing that tonight. There was an energy on the sideline that was really positive and it shows the perseverance of these guys and that they believe in each other. What now? Cal has games left at Stanford and vs. Arizona State to improve its bowl stock and squeeze more wins out of the Goff era.

Next: at Stanford, Nov. 21.

COLORADO (4-7, 1-6)

Game: USC 27, Colorado 24. The Buffaloes led 17-3 in the second quarter but couldn’t hold off a USC rally that included 24 consecutive points. Colorado, which entered the game as a 16-point underdog, put together its own rally late in the game without starting QB Sefo Liufau, who suffered a sprained foot in the second quarter. WR Nelson Spruce returned a punt 45 yards to the USC 2 in the fourth quarter, and freshman QB Cade Apsay hit receiver George Frazier with a 1-yard scoring pass to make it 27-24 with 6:13 left. Colorado had the ball only once after that, and turned it over on downs. Apsay was 18-of-23 for 128 yards, with two touchdowns and no interceptions.

Takeaway: Not again. Colorado is improved under third-year coach Mike MacIntyre, but getting tangible results are hard. The Buffs have lost three conference games this season (Arizona, UCLA, USC) by a touchdown or less. In other words, they aren’t that far off from actually contending for the South title. “They feel it,” MacIntyre said of how the close calls affect the players. “They sense it. It hurts, and they’re hurting. When you come that close, it hurts even more.”

Next: at Washington State, Nov. 21

OREGON (7-3, 5-2)

Game: Oregon 38, Stanford 36. LB Joe Walker saved the Ducks by breaking up a two-point conversion pass with 10 seconds left as Oregon upset seventh-ranked Stanford in what has been the premier matchup in the Pac-12 North for all five seasons of its existence. RB Royce Freeman’s 19-yard touchdown run on Oregon’s first possession of the second half put the Ducks ahead 28-23, and QB Vernon Adams’ 49-touchdown pass to WR Taj Griffin increased the margin to 35-23 late in the third quarter. The Ducks eventually pushed ahead 38-30 on what proved to be a huge 31-yard field goal by Aidan Schneider with 5:12 left. Adams passed for 205 yards. Freeman ran for 105.

Takeaway: Oregon is still alive for the Pac-12 North title but it needs Cal to beat Stanford for that to be a possibility. We’ll see if that happens Saturday, but at least Oregon is back to being Oregon, which means showing off ridiculous athleticism and explosiveness, such as touchdowns on a 49-yard run by Freeman, a 75-yard run by Charles Nelson and a 47-yard reception from Darren Carrington. The Ducks might not get a chance to play for the Pac-12 title but they very well could be playing the best ball in the conference with a healthy Adams at the helm.

Next: vs. USC, Nov. 21

OREGON STATE (2-8, 0-7)

Game: Cal 54, Oregon State 24. The Beavers trailed just 24-10 at halftime, but then Cal and QB Jared Goff took control, with Goff finishing with six touchdown passes against the visitors. Oregon State freshman QB Nick Mitchell completed 14-of-27 passes for two touchdowns but was knocked out of the game late in the third quarter. His replacement, freshman Marcus McMaryion, completed just 1-of-8 passes. WR Jordan Villamin had a team-high seven catches for 83 yards and a touchdowns. The OSU defense allowed Cal to roll up 760 yards of offense.

Takeaway: This isn’t Oregon State’s year. It was never going to be Oregon State’s year. But the Beavers have a quality coach in Gary Andersen, whose luck isn’t getting better late in the season. Starting QB Seth Collins has missed three games with a knee injury and isn’t likely to return this season (speculation is he could be a receiver next season). Mitchell’s status for this week is certainly up in the air after he left the game. That would leave McMaryion as the team’s only healthy scholarship quarterback — and just in time to face one of the best defenses in the league.

Next: vs. Washington

SOUTHERN CAL (7-3, 5-2)

Game: USC 27, Colorado 24. The Trojans survived a close call against the 16-point underdog Buffs, scoring 24 consecutive points after trailing 17-3 in the second quarter. USC QB Cody Kessler passed for three touchdowns after halftime, and he gave the Trojans their first lead on a 2-yard pass to tight end Taylor McNamara late in the third quarter. After CB Adoree’ Jackson blocked a field goal attempt, Kessler connected with WR JuJu Smith-Schuster on a 36-yard score for a 27-17 lead. Colorado finally answered with a TD with 6:13 to go but USC held on by getting the ball back on downs on CU’s final possession. USC has won 10 in a row in the series.

Takeaway: USC gained just 333 yards on a chilly night against Colorado, which isn’t a pretty number for a team with that many weapons, but the Trojans’ situation keeps improving. After winning in Boulder on Friday night, USC sat back and watched Utah and UCLA lose on Saturday night, so the Trojans will enter their treacherous final two games — at Oregon, vs. UCLA — not needing any help to win the Pac-12 South. The Trojans don’t appear to be hitting on all cylinders, but interim coach Clay Helton is holding the ship together. If everything breaks right, this could still be a team nearing the national top 10 by the end of the season.

Next: at Oregon, Nov. 21

STANFORD (8-2, 7-1)

Game: Oregon 38, Stanford 36. The Cardinal had one play to keep alive its hopes for a spot in the College Football Playoff, but Oregon LB Joe Walker broke up a two-point conversion pass with 10 seconds left to preserve the Ducks’ upset. Stanford rolled up 506 yards and held Oregon to 18 first downs, but one of the reasons for the low total of first downs is that the Cardinal couldn’t prevent the speedy Ducks from running off scoring plays of 47, 75 and 49 yards. Stanford QB Kevin Hogan was 28-of-37 for 304 yards, but his two fumbled fourth-quarter snaps, both recovered by Oregon, helped doom the Cardinal’s chances.

Takeaway: Stanford is almost assuredly out of the playoff picture, but it can still be a big influence because of its upcoming home game against Notre Dame. Spoilers? The Cardinal, as it usually does, will have to regroup in a hurry because The Big Game is this week, followed by the meeting with the Irish, then, potentially, the Pac-12 title game and the Rose Bowl. “Everybody is going to talk about how terrible this loss is, how awful this is,” said coach David Shaw. “We got to win one game next week to win the Pac-12 championship game. … So we’re looking ahead.”

Next: vs. Cal, Nov. 21

UCLA (7-3, 4-3)

Game: Washington State 31, UCLA 27. UCLA true freshman QB Josh Rosen had seemingly engineered a fantastic game-winning possession, as he drove the Bruins 80 yards, capped by his own 37-yard scramble with 1:09 to go for a 27-24 lead. That drive came after S Jaleel Wadood intercepted Washington State QB Luke Falk in the end zone with 3:13 left. But after Rosen’s go-ahead score, the Cougars responded with a 75-yard drive that ended with a 21-yard pass to WR Gabe Marks, who made the catch in the end zone despite pass interference with three seconds left. Rosen finished 33-of-57 for 340 yards. Paul Perkins ran 20 times for 121 yards.

Takeaway: Rosen’s dash to paydirt was nearly a signature moment for the young quarterback, but as he later described the emotions of the final 69 seconds, it was, “ecstatic, then real frustrated.” Welcome to UCLA’s season. The Bruins have split their past six games after a promising 4-0 start, with key injuries on defense playing a part, but there is no time to mope. If UCLA wins at Utah and USC, it wins the Pac-12 South for the first time since 2012. “That is something that we have got to get over quickly,” coach Jim Mora said of the loss to Washington State. “As crazy as it is — competitive athletics are crazy — we are right in the hunt for what our goal was all along.”

Next: at Utah, Nov. 21

UTAH (8-2, 5-2)

Game: Arizona 37, Utah 30 (2 OT). The Utes’ hopes of being in the College Football Playoff came crashing down, as Utah was unable to keep pace in the second overtime. The Utes, needing a touchdown, reached the Arizona 8, but then QB Travis Wilson took a sack that set up third-and-16 from the 17. Wilson tossed two incomplete passes to end the game. Arizona had scored on the first play of the second overtime on a 25-yard pass from QB Jerrard Randall to WR Nate Phillips. Utah RB Devontae Booker ran 34 times for 145 yards and a touchdown, although his longest carry went for just 13 yards. Wilson was 20-of-31 for 219 yards, with two touchdowns and one interception.

Takeaway: The Utes surged at the start of the season because of a superior turnover margin. When they don’t win that battle, they go from being great to merely good, which means they’re beatable. Utah has won the turnover margin just once in the past four games, and has gone 2-2 in that stretch. Before that, the Utes were plus-2.0 per game in turnover margin, sitting at 6-0 overall. Utah needs all of its strengths working together — great special teams, offensive efficiency, and creating takeaways — in order to keep marching on to a potential South title.

Next: vs. UCLA, Nov. 21

WASHINGTON (4-6, 2-5)

Game: Arizona State 27, Washington 17. The Huskies led 17-0 in the second quarter and 17-3 at halftime but couldn’t stop the ASU comeback, as QB Jake Browning was intercepted three times in the fourth quarter. After Arizona State RB Kalen Ballage scored on a 48-yard touchdown run with 5:59 remaining for a 10-point lead, this happened: Browning was intercepted, Washington lost a fumble, Browning was intercepted. The true freshman QB did complete 28-of-52 passes for 405 yards and a touchdown.

Takeaway: Washington showed its potential with 536 yards of offense, but probably showed its inexperience with four fourth-quarter turnovers. Such is life in the second season under coach Chris Petersen, whose backfield of Browning and tailback Myles Gaskin is only going to get better and should develop into a fearsome Pac-12 duo. As for the present, the Huskies need to win out to be bowl eligible. They should win at Oregon State (the worst team in the league), which would mean they would require an Apple Cup victory over Washington State to qualify for the postseason.

Next: at Oregon State, Nov. 21

WASHINGTON STATE (7-3, 5-2)

Game: Washington State 31, UCLA 27. The Cougars pulled off the upset by scoring a touchdown with three seconds left in the game. UCLA took a 27-24 lead when QB Josh Rosen scrambled 37 yards for a touchdown with 1:09 to go. That was enough time for WSU QB Luke Falk, who was knocked out of the game earlier after taking a big hit. He marched the Cougars down the field and hit WR Gabe Marks in the end zone despite pass interference on UCLA. Falk was 38-of-53 for 331 yards, with two touchdowns and an interception. Marks had two touchdown receptions among his 12 catches.

Takeaway: Falk, a sophomore who arrived as a walk-on, has been brilliant this season, supplying the firepower behind WSU’s resurgence this season. Coach Mike Leach said the team didn’t feel any anxiety on the final play because of Falk’s demeanor. He previously led the Cougars to a final-seconds win at Rutgers and an overtime triumph at Oregon. “I think a lot of it is that Luke is so stable,” Leach said. “He has a very calm and stabilizing influence on our offense.”

Next: vs. Colorado, Nov. 21

NOTES, QUOTES

–Colorado junior QB Sefo Liufau suffered a Lisfranc foot injury in the game against USC and will be out for six to eight months. The Buffs will need a new starting quarterback for the final two games of the regular season and through spring practice.

Freshman Cade Apsay replaced Liufau last Friday, but the Buffaloes will also look at junior college transfer Jordan Gehrke this week. “We’ll see how a week in practice goes,” coach Mike MacIntyre said. “But we have to have them both ready because Jordan is a snap away from being out there.”

–Lots of changes in the record books after UCLA’s game against Washington State.

WR Jordan Payton tied a school record by catching 14 passes, equaling the mark set by J.J. Stokes in the 1994 Rose Bowl against Wisconsin. Senior PK Ka’imi Fairbairn is up to 402 career points, breaking the conference scoring record of 390, which was set by former UCLA kicker John Lee from 1982 to 1985.

More: Senior offensive lineman Jake Brendel set a school record with his 49th career start, RB Paul Perkins is the UCLA record-holder for most receptions by a running back (71) and QB Josh Rosen threw a school-record 57 passes.

–Colorado honored legendary sportscaster Larry Zimmer, who has spent the past 42 years behind the mic for the Buffaloes in a career that spans 50 years. The school honored him after the first quarter during his last game at Folsom Field. “I did my first broadcast for a Baton Rouge radio station when I was 16 years old,” Zimmer said. “I never thought that when I was 80, I’d still be broadcasting. That’s how blessed I am.”

–USC lost two linebackers for the rest of the season against Colorado, including leading tackler Cameron Smith. Smith will need knee surgery, and senior Lamar Dawson has a shoulder injury that will require surgery.

–Arizona alum Bob Baffert, the trainer for Triple Crown winner American Pharoah, was honored on the field during the Wildcats’ game against Utah. Baffert’s stable of horses has included several that have Arizona-themed names, including Midnight Lute (for ex-UA basketball coach Lute Olson) and others for former football coach Mike Stoops, basketball coach Sean Miller, softball coach Mike Candrea and the wife of athletic director Greg Byrne.

QUOTE TO NOTE: “It was never in our hands, as far as there being a committee and decision-makers. We didn’t focus on it. So, like I said, we’re living life in the windshield right now. That’s in our rearview mirror. We got one game to go to the Pac-12 championship game and that’s what we’re going to focus on.” — Stanford coach David Shaw on likely being erased from the College Football Playoff discussion.

STRATEGY AND PERSONNEL

FIVE BIGGEST TAKEAWAYS FROM WEEK 11 IN THE PAC-12:

1. What a difference QB Vernon Adams Jr. makes. Oregon is a whole different team with a healthy Adams in charge, and you have to wonder if the Ducks would be carrying the Pac-12 banner if not for the finger injury he suffered in the season-opener. His ability to extend plays and then deliver a dagger has turned around Oregon’s season.

2. Beware RichRod. Arizona has upset a top 10 team in each of Rich Rodriguez’s four seasons in Tucson, including Saturday’s 37-30 double-overtime win over Utah. No league foe should want to play a late-season game at Arizona, whose best upset work has come in November.

3. The South can’t get any separation. The division format is now in its fifth season, and only Arizona State, at 8-1 in 2013, will have won the South with fewer than two losses. The teams are just too good and the coaches too savvy.

4. Washington State isn’t a surprise any more. The Cougars are legit, and shame on anybody who hasn’t caught on. Their three losses — which included an opening defeat to Portland State — have been by a total of 15 points. With QB Luke Falk, that Air Raid attack, a defense that is better than you think and overflowing confidence, Washington State would scare just about anyone in the country.

5. Get some bubble wrap for Pac-12 QBs. Colorado’s Sefo Liufau, Arizona’s Anu Solomon and Oregon State’s Nick Mitchell are all out, or potentially out, for next week’s games after sustaining injuries last week. Washington State’s Luke Falk somehow came back after taking a hard hit. Be careful out there, guys.