GAME BREAKDOWN
KEY MATCHUP: Oregon pass offense vs. UCLA pass defense. Since Pac-12 play began, the Ducks and the Bruins have been on two completely different paths. While Oregon rose to as high as No. 12 in the national rankings before back-to-back losses knocked them out the rankings, UCLA has won two of three to put themselves in the Pac-12 south race.
That’s why Saturday’s matchup is so important as the Ducks will either end their recent skid or the Bruins will continue their late-season push to bowl eligibility.
Helping settle the outcome of the game will be the battle between Oregon’s pass offense against UCLA’s pass defense.
Oregon enters with questions and quarterback and wide receiver. Justin Herbert, the potential top-pick in the upcoming NFL Draft, and Dillon Mitchell, the conference’s leading receiver in Pac-12 games, are both questionable for this weekend after undergoing Oregon’s concussion protocol this week.
The duo has been one of the best in nation, not just the Pac-12. Herbert has completed 155-of-260 passes for 2,069 yards and 20 touchdowns on the season. Mitchell has been the biggest benefactor, catching 48 passes for 677 yards and four scores.
This combination has proven deadly as Herbert, whenever in trouble or in need of a big play, looks to Mitchell, who always delivers. These two are what makes Oregon’s offense from being one-dimensional, a passing duo capable of beating any coverage or defense thrown at them.
Backup quarterback Tyler Shough and Braxton Burmeister will run the offense if Herbert is unable to go. Burmeister saw action in five games last year when Herbert was out hurt while Shough, the freshman, has yet to take a meaningful snap on the season.
“Should the case be where it’s something where they have to play right away, absolutely, those guys will be taking a bunch of reps,” Oregon head coach Mario Cristobal said of his backup quarterbacks.
Wide receivers Jaylon Redd, Johnny Johnson III and Brenden Schooler will all have to take on bigger roles if Mitchell is out.
“We’ve got a young receivers corps,” Cristobal said. “Some of them are getting better, they’re working at it and some of them have had some really good success and some are still working at it — I wouldn’t point to them as having poor play or whatnot.”
They’ll go up against UCLA, the Pac-12’s third-best pass defense in conference games, giving up 217.6 yards through the air with six interceptions and eight sacks.
Adarius Pickett is the leader of the secondary, as well as the entire team. He leads the Bruins with 10.5 tackles per game, 4th in the conference, and has one fumble recovery, one interception and two pass break-ups on the season.
His ability to play both in the box and in coverage is what makes him one of the Pac-12’s best safeties. An athletic and instinctual player, Pickett does a great job of diagnosing plays from his spot in the backfield of the defense.
“He’s a good football player and he showed up a lot last year against us, made a lot of plays,” Cristobal said of Pickett. “He gets downhill in the run game, makes a lot of tackles and is excellent in pass coverage.”
Quentin Lake leads the Bruins with two interceptions, one of six players with a pick on the season, while Darnay Holmes leads the team with six passes broken up.
UCLA will try to pressure whoever’s at quarterback for Oregon by letting Keisean Lucier-South loose in the pass rush, forcing the Ducks to quick and uncomfortable throws that are hard to complete when going against man coverage. Opposing teams have used this formula to success in the past so it should be of no surprise if the Bruins attempt to do the same.
“They get exotic on third down and try to put pressure on your quarterback,” Cristobal said. “They’ll get up there and mug your wide receivers, they’ll try to disrupt the timing of your passing game.”
Throwing the ball will be vital to the Ducks’ success because if they can’t, expect the Bruins to overload the box to stop Oregon’s run game. The Ducks must show the ability to beat man coverage, whether that be with crossing routes or double moves, to get the offense flying high again.
It could be a very tall order to do without Herbert or Mitchell but regardless of who’s in, this is a matchup Oregon can’t afford to lose.
DRAFT SLANT
–DE Jalen Jelks, DE: The most hyped player to return to Oregon this year wasn’t quarterback Justin Herbert, wide receiver Dillon Mitchell or linebacker Troy Dye.
It was senior defensive end Jalen Jelks, a player who could’ve road his breakout junior season right to the NFL. Instead, Jelks opted to return to the Ducks for another crack at Pac-12 quarterbacks and as of now, he’s probably regretting that choice due to his production this year.
It’s understandable that Jelks’ numbers are down from last year (15 tackles for loss, 6.5 sacks and seven passes defended) because he’s been facing more double teams and opposing offenses are choosing to run away from him. But, the 6-foot-6, 252-pound athlete needs to produce more than his five tackles for loss and 3.5 sacks.
Jelks, who could play outside linebacker in a 3-4 or defensive end in a 4-3, entered the season as the No. 8 defensive end NFL prospect in the nation. With a fast first-step and violent hands, Jelks has shown that he can hold up against bigger linemen this year, often taking on pulling guards and setting the edge against ball carriers.
He does possess an endless motor that helps him track down running backs from behind, but he needs to do a better job of getting off blocks or finding the ball, often staying engaged too long and missing out from making the play.
If he chose to leave early last year, Jelks told the Oregonian that he was projected as a second-round pick due to his pass rushing ability, something he’s continued to flash this season without the same results. According to Pro Football Focus, Jelks was the highest-rated interior lineman to return to college football this season.
With NFL scouts at virtually every Oregon game thanks to Herbert’s possibility of being the top overall pick in the NFL Draft, Jelks will have the chance to impress again when facing a UCLA offensive line that has struggled for much of the season.
The Bruins will either go with senior Wilton Speight, an in-the-pocket type of passer, or Dorian Thompson-Robinson, a versatile freshman who can make plays with his legs.
Either way, Jelks will have to prove that he’s much more than just a key in Oregon’s defense, but rather, a star waiting to break out in his senior season.
ROSTER REPORT:
–QB Justin Herbert was in Oregon’s concussion protocol early in the week and his status for this weekend is unknown. Herbert has recorded a touchdown pass in 23 straight games, currently the longest streak in college football.
–WR Dillon Mitchell was in Oregon’s concussion protocol with an unknown status for Saturday’s game against UCLA.
–TE Kano Dillon is still not up to full speed but the Ducks are hoping to get him back Wednesday in time for this weekend.
–DL Austin Failou and LB Kaulana Apelu are both practicing this week and are expected full-go’s this weekend.
–OG Dallas Warmack injured his shoulder last week against Arizona but after testing came up negative, there’s a strong likelihood he’ll play against UCLA.
–OT Calvin Throckmorton hasn’t allowed a sack in his last 1,943 snaps, a streak that spans the previous 26 games.
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