The Tigers need a healthy Kam Pettway down the stretch if it expects to win out. Photo Credit: Matt Bush-USA TODAY Sports
In a season of positives and negatives, highs and lows, confidence and uncertainty, the latest concerns for Auburn couldn’t come at a worse time.
The Tiger football team, ranked No. 8 in the national polls, is in control of its own destiny for the first time since the first three weeks of the season. Win the next three games and Auburn plays in the SEC Championship Game in Atlanta. Win that one and it is likely among the Final Four teams playing for the national championship.
Impossible, no. Any time the Cubs and Trump both win, anything can happen.
Remember what happened in 2013. After a 14-point loss in Baton Rouge, the Tigers ran the table, defeating several ranked teams, including the annual season-ending Georgia-Alabama gauntlet. That team fell just a few seconds short of Auburn’s second national title in four years.
That happening again this year was already a longshot, but an avalanche of injuries have made it an even greater longshot.
National perception has Auburn favored to win this year’s chapter of the South’s oldest football rivalry. The Tigers have been among the hottest teams in the country, one of the most improved, one of the most over-achieving. Georgia has been one of the most disappointing teams in the country. Just a week ago, an Auburn win in Athens seemed near certain. The first betting line out of Las Vegas this week had Auburn favored by nine points.
Are odds-makers looking through burnt orange and navy blue glasses?
You can’t ignore how Auburn has played over the past six games. But, you also can’t ignore the team’s injury situation just a few days before the kickoff in Athens.
Start with the defense.
Auburn is the nation’s ninth best scoring defense, surrendering an average of just 16 points per game. Only two opponents have scored more than 20 points the entire season. The Tigers rank among SEC leaders and among the national Top 25 in red zone defense, third down conversion defense and total defense.
But, there is concern. Linebacker Tre Williams was injured in the Ole Miss win and didn’t play in the victory over Vanderbilt. Defensive lineman Andrew Williams played only a few snaps in the fourth quarter against the Commodores and Byron Cowart saw limited action after strong games against Arkansas and Ole Miss. Freshman defensive end Marlon Davidson has been limited in practice and playing time.
The defensive backfield has even more questions. Tray Matthews has an injured left shoulder. Nick Ruffin saw only a few snaps against Vandy. Carlton Davis is not 100 percent. Rudy Ford and Javaris Davis, also hurt at Ole Miss, did not play as much as usual on Saturday even with the game still on the line. How much will the defensive walking wounded be available against the Bulldogs and how effective can they be?
There aren’t as many offensive injuries, but they are key.
Against the Commodores, the team’s leading receiver, Tony Stevens, missed his second consecutive game.
Junior college transfer John Franklin III, starting at quarterback in place of injured Sean White, missed wide open receivers and lost a fumble on an option run. The offense wasn’t crisp and never got in sync.
How much difference does that make?
White leads the SEC and is No. 7 nationally in completion percentage at 69.1, ranking ahead of Heisman contenders Jake Browning (Washington), Patrick Mahomes (Texas Tech) and Deshaun Watson (Clemson), among others. His 159.8 passing efficiency rating leads the SEC and is 12th nationally.
In the second half on Saturday, he completed 10 of 13 passes, including one for a touchdown, as the Tigers came from behind for the win. It’s obvious that Auburn’s chances to win, especially against hostile crowds on the road, are immeasurably better with White playing, healthy or not.
Another major loss will be running back Kamryn Pettway if he can’t play due to the leg injury suffered late in the Vanderbilt game. Kerryon Johnson, the other half of Auburn’s one-two punch, still isn’t at 100 percent after an ankle injury during the win over Mississippi State.
There’s no way to overstate the magnitude of the loss for Auburn if Pettway is unavailable. The 240-pound runaway train that seemingly came out of nowhere is the nation’s No. 4 runner (138.8 yards per game). He gained 173 yards against Vandy, becoming the first Tiger to gain more than 150 yards in four consecutive games since Bo Jackson in 1985.
Georgia has been one of college football’s biggest disappointments. Ranked No. 9 in the early season polls, the Dawgs have limped along, barely beating Missouri and Nichols … Nichols!… falling from the rankings with four losses before the end of October (Ole Miss, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Florida).
Unable to be relevant in any championship discussion, Georgia was left to play the role of spoiler. Just ask Kentucky.
Going into the Dawg-Cats game in Lexington last week, the Wildcats also controlled their own destiny. A win over the Dawgs would have sent them to Knoxville with the SEC East title on the line. Georgia ended that dream with a 27-24 come-from-behind victory.
With a win over Auburn on Saturday afternoon, the Dawgs can again be a spoiler, this time knocking the Tigers out of conference and national title conversation.
So, what about Georgia? Teams have scored a lot of points against the Bulldogs (only two opponents have scored under 24 points), but statistically they have some strengths. They rank 16th nationally in total defense (nine places ahead of Auburn) and 20th in rushing defense (eight places ahead of Auburn).
The Bulldog offense has underachieved, especially the rushing attack from which so much was expected. But, after an anemic performance against Florida, Nick Chubb ran for 85 of the team’s 215 yards against Kentucky and freshman quarterback Jacob Eason threw for 245 yards and a touchdown.
Recent history doesn’t help Auburn’s confidence. The combined score in the Tigers’ last two trips to Athens … Georgia 79, Auburn 14. The Bulldogs have won four in a row there and five of the last six, never scoring fewer than 26 points, twice scoring 45.
Auburn has a lot to play for on Saturday; Georgia not so much. But, Kirby Smart’s team can still help his old boss by knocking Alabama’s last competitor out of the race.
If Auburn is really the championship caliber team it has been since late September, it will find a way to win in Athens despite the challenges. That’s what good teams do.
And, Nick Saban’s team will still be playing Auburn two days after Thanksgiving with the title on the line.
