Auburn needs a healthy Sean White if it expects to knock off high-powered Oklahoma. Photo Credit: John Reed-USA TODAY Sports
The conversation on Thursday afternoon went something like this.
“Just hope it’s not too embarrassing,” said the longtime close college football follower, a Southeastern Conference fan, specifically an Auburn fan.
“What are you talking about?”
“The Sugar Bowl,” he said. “The conference is already doing so badly and this one could be the worst.”
“You think so?”
“Well, yeah,” he said, sounding pretty confident. “Oklahoma just has too much for Auburn. They could have their way with them.”
For sure, the SEC didn’t get off to a great start in the postseason. After five games, the conference was 1-4 and only avoided going 0-5 due to Mississippi State’s last play block of what would have been the winning field goal by Miami (Ohio), a mediocre team from the Mid-American Conference … a league that did start 0-5.
Even though the Big 12 champion Sooners are only favored by 3-4 points, that bleak analysis of Auburn’s chances in Monday night’s Sugar Bowl seems to be the predominant sentiment.
On an ESPN show not long after bowl pairings were announced, four network analysts looked ahead to the traditional New Year’s Day bowls and the two College Football Playoff games. The Oklahoma-Auburn match-up was barely mentioned except for a near-chuckle about the lack of interest in the game (to be televised on ESPN). They talked more about the Florida-Iowa game in the Citrus Bowl in Orlando … now there’s a game that’s captured national attention.
A lot of fans also don’t show much confidence or excitement for Auburn. I can’t count the number that have told me they were going to New Orleans to enjoy the Cajun food and just hoped the game was “respectable.” Some decided not to make the trip, planning to watch it on television, hoping it will be “competitive.”
It’s easy to understand the overwhelming confidence in an Oklahoma win, maybe by a big margin.
The Sooners have Baker Mayfield, arguably college football’s top quarterback. He led the nation in passing efficiency (197.8), yards per passing attempt (11.12) and pass completion percentage (71.2). Only four quarterbacks threw more touchdown passes and he was in the top dozen in total offense.
When the five Heisman Trophy finalists were introduced in New York City, Mayfield was one of them. But, he wasn’t the only Sooner on the stage. Wide receiver Dede Westbrook was there, too.
The Biletnikoff Award winner as the nation’s top receiver, the senior had 1,435 receiving yards with 16 touchdown catches and finished seventh nationally in reception yards per game average.
But, that’s not all. The Sooners’ ground game, led by the one-two punch of Samaje Perine and Joe Mixon, ranks 20th in the country, helping Oklahoma rank third nationally in total offense with over 557 yards per game and third in scoring at 44.7 points per game.
The Sooners won their league title and have won nine consecutive games. Compare that to poor Auburn, losers of two of its last three games including losses to its two biggest rivals, not even winners of its division, much less its conference title.
So, of course, Oklahoma will win the game and it shouldn’t even be respectable.
Maybe … but I don’t see it.
Auburn stacks up better against Oklahoma than many people apparently realize.
If it’s true that defense wins games, then it’s no contest.
Consider these national rankings (with each team playing 12 regular season games):
Scoring defense … Auburn No. 5 … Oklahoma No. 75
Total defense … Auburn No. 20 … Oklahoma No. 89
Rushing defense … Auburn No. 21 … Oklahoma No. 55
Red Zone defense … Auburn No. 4 … Oklahoma No. 37
Third down defense … Auburn No. 18 … Oklahoma No. 99
Passing efficiency defense … Auburn No. 16 … Oklahoma No. 69
It’s true that the Sooners faced more prolific offenses in the Big 12 and in their non-conference opponents than Auburn faced, but the reverse is true defensively. Oklahoma only played three teams in the top 50 in total defense and lost two of those games by double digits (Ohio State, Houston). Seven of their opponents didn’t rank in the top 80 teams defensively.
Only one Auburn opponent scored as many as 30 points (Alabama in a 30-12) win. Oklahoma surrendered 40 points to Texas, 46 to TCU and 59 to Texas Tech, which scored only 10 against Iowa State. Only three Sooners opponents scored fewer than 20 points. Only three of Auburn’s scored more than 20.
Each team played one of the CFP semi-finalists playing in the Fiesta Bowl. Ohio State played in Norman and beat the Sooners by 21 points (45-24). Clemson played in Auburn and couldn’t even score 21 points. The visiting Tigers won, 19-13, when an Auburn pass to the end zone on the game’s last play was incomplete avoiding an upset loss. It was the only game all season when Clemson scored fewer than 24 points.
While Oklahoma has the offensive advantage, Auburn wasn’t that far behind when its key playmakers were healthy.
Before starting quarterback Sean White was injured late in the Ole Miss game, he was also among the national leaders in passing efficiency and pass completion percentage.
Before starting running back Kam Pettway was injured against Vanderbilt, the Top 10 semi-finalist for the Doak Walker Award, was the SEC rushing leader and despite being injured for three games, he still finished 11th in rushing average per game (124.8) and the Auburn team finished sixth.
Before those injuries, Auburn was led the conference in total offense. But, after the injuries, it was a different picture. A much different picture. A really ugly picture.
In the second half against Georgia with White unable to throw at all and Pettway not dressed out, the Tigers couldn’t even get a first down, much less a touchdown, and lost 13-7. Against Alabama with White not dressed out, the still injured Pettway saw limited action and was ineffective.
If somehow Auburn could keep it close, junior Daniel Carlson, the two-time runner-up for the Lou Groza Award as the nation’s top placekicker, would give the Tigers a big potential advantage.
So, does Auburn have a realistic chance to pull a surprise in New Orleans?
If White, Pettway and running back Kerryon Johnson (high ankle sprain for the last two months of the season) are healthy and can play to their pre-injury levels, the underdogs have a legitimate shot. Of course, that’s a big, big “if.”
We’ve seen what Auburn’s offense can do when it plays healthy. But, we’ve also seen what it does when it isn’t.
Will it be a Sooner runaway? Does Oklahoma just “have too much for Auburn?”
Maybe … but, don’t be surprised if it doesn’t turn out that way.
