Oct 14, 2018; Arlington, TX, USA; Dallas Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott (21) runs for a touchdown in the fourth quarter against Jacksonville Jaguars defensive back Tyler Patmon (23) at AT&T Stadium. Photo Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports
Patrick Mahomes started one NFL game before his MVP season in 2018, but the flashes of greatness were evident to the Kansas City Chiefs — so much so that
Andy Reid and Company parted with Alex Smith in an offseason deal with the Washington Redskins and set the stage for Mahomes 2018 Breakout Tour. It was a smashing success.
Prior to the 2018 season, Mahomes was a serious longshot to win the league’s MVP award, anywhere from off the board to 100-1 entering training camp.
Once he put up his first aerial show in the preseason, Mahomes climbed to 25-1 at sportsbooks Bovada and Westgate.
The moral to this story: Find your NFL MVP value, play now and let it ride.
Mahomes took home the trophy and is the favorite to win MVP in 2019 at Westgate.
Superbook USA has Mahomes at 4-1 ahead of Andrew Luck and Aaron Rodgers at 8-1, and Drew Brees and Carson Wentz at 10-1.
Here’s where you should start to like the value.
New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady comes in at 12-1, with Philip Rivers and Russell Wilson 14-1.
With the Los Angeles Chargers, Rivers has one of the best – arguably the No. 1 group – defenses in the NFL backing him. I think Wilson is closer to 20-1 and would pass here.
Brady might be inching closer to 50 but he just bagged another Lombardi Trophy and won his third MVP award just two years ago in 2017.
If I’m not investing in Brady and Rivers, then dollars and hollers to Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield. His ascension would not be unlike Mahomes’ as a second-year breakout star. Mayfield is a household name, of course, but with two Pro Bowl receivers and a team on the climb, the playoffs are a real possibility in Cleveland again.
Should the Browns win 11 or 12 games, Mayfield is easily a top three MVP candidate. His current odds? Twenty-five to 1 … 25-1!
That’s on the same line as Ben Roethlisberger of the Pittsburgh Steelers and Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan.
Two other quarterbacks and one running back I’d be willing to take a flier on:
Mitchell Trubisky is 200-1. I’m not saying he’s the best quarterback in his division, but he might be on the best team in the NFC North, the Chicago Bears. And if the Bears are 13-3 or 12-4, Trubisky has just put up some video game numbers in Matt Nagy’s offense.
Jimmy Garappolo is 80-1 and coming off of ACL surgery, but the San Francisco 49ers are a sneaky good pick out of the West if the Rams can’t shake the typical Super Bowl runner-up hangover.
Ezekiel Elliott of the Dallas Cowboys is 60-1 and playing for a long-term contract. The Cowboys are tweaking their offense with Randall Cobb to assist Amari Cooper, and Elliott could approach 400 touches running and receiving.
Adrian Peterson won the award in 2012 with the Vikings and is the last non-quarterback to claim the hardware. All he had to do was clear 2,097 yards.
Other options from the longshot bin we’d consider:
Saints WR Michael Thomas, 100-1
Cowboys QB Dak Prescott, 100-1
Jets RB Le’Veon Bell, 100-1
Chargers RB Melvin Gordon, 100-1
Chiefs TE Travis Kelce, 100-1
Giants RB Saquon Barkley, 80-1
