Nov 27, 2016; Tampa, FL, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Jameis Winston (3) throws a pass as Seattle Seahawks defensive tackle Jarran Reed (90) closes in during the second quarter of an NFL football game at Raymond James Stadium. Photo Credit: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-5) at Dallas Cowboys (11-2)
KICKOFF: Sunday, 8:30 p.m. ET, AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas. TV: NBC, Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth, Michele Tafoya.
SERIES HISTORY: 16th regular-season meeting. Cowboys lead the series, 11-4. The Bucs snapped a five-game losing streak to Dallas last year with a win at Raymond James Stadium. Nine of the meetings have been held in Dallas, with the Cowboys owning an 8-1 lead.
GAMEDATE: 12/18/16
KEYS TO THE GAME: The Bucs are a confident team and have established a way to win games. They run the football — albeit not effectively — use play-action passes and try to control field position and the clock. They hold a 50-minute advantage in time of possession over the past five games.
Lately they have been winning by creating takeaways and not turning the ball over. They are seventh in the NFL in turnover margin at plus-6 after starting the year at minus-9.
But playing the 11-2 Cowboys will be their toughest test. Not only is it a big stage in Dallas on Sunday night, but they face Rookie of the Year candidate Ezekiel Elliott. The Cowboys’ offensive line is the best in the league. The plan will be for defensive coordinator Mike Smith to keep a fresh rotation of defensive linemen in the game.
The Bucs will need to create some explosive plays on offense. The Cowboys don’t rush the passer extremely well and, if Jameis Winston has time, he will try to get the ball to receiver Mike Evans.
Look for the Bucs to use a heavy dose of Charles Sims in the screen game. Sims was effective in his first game back from injured reserve last week against the Saints.
The Cowboys will again try to establish the run with Elliott against a Tampa Bay run defense that ranks 21st, giving up 110 yards per game. But the key for the Cowboys is converting third downs. They are 2 of 24 on third downs over the last two games, against the Vikings and Giants. Quarterback Dak Prescott must get the team in manageable third downs and find a way to move the chains as they did earlier in the season.
Defensively, they need to stop the run, pressure Winston and keep him from making big plays down the field to Evans.
MATCHUPS TO WATCH:
–Cowboys C Travis Frederick vs. Buccaneers DT Gerald McCoy. Frederick is a three-time Pro Bowler and generally regarded as the best center in the NFL. He keys everything the Cowboys do up front because he usually calls the protections. He will have his hands full with McCoy — the best player on the Buccaneers’ defense and an interior disruptor against the run and the pass.
McCoy has seven sacks this season and has collected 33 1/2 over the last four seasons.
–Buccaneers WR Mike Evans vs. Cowboys CB Brandon Carr. Evans has developed into a top-five receiver in the NFL. He is big, fast and strong. The 6-5 receiver ranks third in the NFL in catches (80) and touchdowns (10) and is fifth with 1,100 yards. Carr had some success shadowing Giants WR Odell Beckham Jr. last Sunday, but the task is bigger with Evans. “It’s going to be a battle,” Carr said. “It’s going to be a lot of deep balls. (Jameis Winston) is aggressive pushing the ball down the field. They have great chemistry. He has a lot of confidence in him. It’s going to be a big challenge for all of us on the back end to corral this big horse.”
PLAYER SPOTLIGHT: Cowboys LB Sean Lee. He set a franchise record with 22 tackles against the New York Giants last Sunday night. It was his fourth career game with 20 or more tackles. It apparently took its toll as he was limited in practice Wednesday with a knee injury, but the Cowboys expect him to play Sunday.
FAST FACTS: Buccaneers QB Jameis Winston has thrown for 1,099 yards and six TDs, with two interceptions, in his past four games. … Bucs RB Doug Martin has run for a touchdown in each of the past two weeks. He also is averaging 101.7 scrimmage yards in his past 13 road games. … Bucs DT Gerald McCoy has six sacks and two forced fumbles in his past nine games. He has 33.5 sacks since 2013, the most among NFL defensive tackles. … Cowboys QB Dak Prescott leads NFL rookies with 20 passing TDs and a 102.7 rating. He has recorded a passer rating of 100 in 10 of 13 career starts. He has eight TD passes and one INT in six home games. … Dallas RB Ezekiel Elliott leads the NFL with 1,392 rushing yards and leads the rushing TDs. He has six 100-yard rushing games and five in a row with 100 scrimmage yards. … Dallas DE Benson Mayowa has two sacks and a forced fumble in his past two games.
PREDICTION: The streaking Bucs are one of the teams no one wants to play right now, and the Cowboys’ offense has stumbled along recently. The Bucs’ defense could get in the way of Elliott, but look for Dallas to respond in a big way after a loss to the Giants.
OUR PICK: Cowboys, 30-22.
–Chris Cluff
