Chargers shaping up as big disappointment

On this, the first weekend of exhibition games in the NFL, fans of every team — well, almost every team (sorry, Cleveland) — are filled with anticipation, excitement and optimism.

Most of them will be sorely disappointed.

Only one team will be left standing at the end. And the failures — and successes — may have little to do with the all the off-season planning and much to do with the vagaries of a ball that bounces funny or, of course, injuries. But no one wants to think about those things in August.

We do, however. And it doesn’t take a genius to figure that not all of these teams will play to their hoped-for potential, that the touted draft picks or free agents will not develop or fit in the way they’re supposed to, that the improvement expected in some areas will not occur.

We are already seeing the first signs of that in San Diego.

The Chargers are a desperate team. They want fans to vote them a new stadium. They are coming off a 4-12 season. They are, or were, looking for a big defensive lift from first draft choice Joey Bosa. But they and Bosa have been quibbling over minor details in a contract that is largely pro forma under NFL rules, and he’s missing valuable training camp time.

For a veteran pro, it wouldn’t be a big deal. But for a rookie it is. History tells us that rookie holdouts are slower to develop, and that’s something you would think the Chargers can’t afford. Not in their situation, when they want to keep the fans on their side for the stadium vote. And especially in their situation, where the best team in their division, the defending Super Bowl champion Broncos, must start over at quarterback, a change that makes them very vulnerable.

It looks, however, like the Broncos will be vulnerable only to the Raiders and the Chiefs in the AFC West. Pencil in San Diego as the division’s disappointment.

Here are the disappointments to expect in the league’s other seven divisions:

NFC East — Dallas. The Cowboys may already have clinched this title for lifetime under-achievement. They spent the first part of the offseason convincing themselves that quarterback Tony Romo’s return to health would make all the difference they needed this year, and the last part of it wondering how they are going to replace three key defensive players who were suspended.

Unfortunately, the Cowboys are a long-term victim of what we might call the “one player away” syndrome. They always think the next move is the one that will make the difference for them. They bring to mind a comment from George Young, the late Giants’ general manager: “Any time you think you’re one player away, you’re not.”

NFC North — Chicago. In his two previous head coaching gigs, John Fox took teams to significant improvements in the second season. At Carolina, the Panthers went from 7-9 to the Super Bowl. At Denver, the Broncos went from 8-8 to 13-3. Unfortunately for him, this rebuilding job is much tougher, and the Bears are not likely to make a big jump from 6-10 a year ago.

The Bears have had to remake virtually an entire defense and significant parts of their offense. And they already have been hit with the injury bug, and the season-long loss of center Hroniss Grasu might not be the worst part of it. Wide receiver Alshon Jeffery’s health is an issue, and outside linebacker Pernell McPhee, the team’s best pass rusher last year, isn’t able to practice yet.

NFC South — Coming off a 15-1 season that ended in a Super Bowl defeat, the Carolina Panthers are clear favorites over two rebuilding teams, New Orleans and Tampa Bay, and one that seems to have stalled in the last couple of years, Atlanta.

There may not be a real disappointment in this division because no one expects much of any team except the Panthers — and no Super Bowl loser has gotten back to the big game since the Bills’ four straight defeats in the 1990s. So, unless Carolina implodes, this is the division most likely to go to form.

NFC West — This is another division that figures to produce few surprises, unless you slept through the last few years and are surprised to find the Arizona Cardinals among the NFL’s elite teams. The Rams are starting over with a rookie quarterback in a new/old home. That leaves Seattle and San Francisco to battle for the “biggest disappointment” label.

The Seahawks will miss Marshawn Lynch because, for the first time, the demands on quarterback Russell Wilson will be amped up. But Wilson looks like he could be capable. The same can’t be said of the mess in San Francisco, where new coach Chip Kelly needs to play a new tune. His defense was on the field in Philly an average of two full games a year more than his offense. Can’t win in the NFL that way.

AFC East — New York Jets. First of all, you must understand that any hype about a New York team must be discounted about 20 percent for the Big Apple media exuberance. In translating that to what’s going on now, the late contract agreement with Ryan Fitzpatrick is not suddenly going to vault the Jets past the Patriots. In fact, it’s a sign of the decline of NFL quarterbacking that Fitzpatrick became such a big deal.

The Jets do have one thing going for them; outside of New England, there is not a team in the division to be feared. But once you get past the bluster in Buffalo, the fact is that Rex Ryan is really a good coach who just happens to have a big mouth and big ego, and it’s the Bills, not the Jets, who are most likely to make a run at the Patriots.

AFC North — Wow, is this ever an intriguing division, aside from Cleveland, that is. Pittsburgh has not had a losing season since 2003. Joe Flacco is back with the Ravens but there are injuries all around him. And then there is Cincinnati, which has been in the playoffs six times in seven years, seven times in 11 years, and yet has not won a postseason game in a quarter-century.

It must be maddening for owner Mike Brown, much as he despises having to change coaches, to go through the same year-after-year disappointment with a contending team. At what point does he decide enough is enough with Marvin Lewis and his coaching staff? And at what point does the frustration of year after year disappointment weigh so heavily on the team that it implodes? It could happen.

AFC South — Remember that “one player away” syndrome? The Houston Texans could be another poster child for it. The Texans are convinced that quarterback Brock Osweiler will put them over the top. He was certainly serviceable enough for the Broncos to help them win a Super Bowl last year, even if Peyton Manning eventually had to bail him out.

But, and this is a big but, with Denver, Osweiler had a world-class defense behind him. With Houston, he has a world-class defensive end in J.J. Watt, presuming Watt is healthy for the start of the season, but will that be enough? Or will coach Bill O’Brien be the latest in the long line of Bill Belichick assistants to leave the Patriots’ nest and fail somewhere else?
Ira Miller is an award-winning sportswriter who has covered the National Football League for more than four decades and is a member of the Pro Football Hall of Fame Selection Committee. He is a national columnist for The Sports Xchange.