Nov 5, 2015; Manhattan, KS, USA; Baylor Bears return specialist Corey Coleman (1) carries the ball past Kansas State Wildcats defensive back Kaleb Prewett (4) and linebacker Elijah Lee (9) during the first half at Bill Snyder Family Football Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Scott Sewell-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to Week 11 of The Lowe Down.
I don’t talk about the Heisman much, but I honestly believe after last week’s performance against LSU Derrick Henry (210 rushing yards; three TDs) should be the frontrunner. Yes, Leonard Fournette may be a better talent and potentially a better pro prospect. But I’m not sure if any player in the country is more valuable to his team than Henry.
Yes, you can make a case for several players also fitting that bill — Paxton Lynch of Memphis, Fournette of LSU, Deshaun Watson of Clemson and Christian McCaffrey of Stanford — but Henry has been the offensive star of the game in every big game the Crimson Tide has played this season. That means something. And if I had a vote, he would be my guy.
Last week’s record was 17-6, bringing the yearly record to 138-44. To the games we go…
@MattLowe777
Friday, November 13
USC (6-3) at Colorado (4-6) 7:00 pm. CT
USC can remain in contention for the Pac-12 South title with a win over Colorado, but don’t expect the Buffaloes to just roll over. Weekly road games are always tricky to predict due to teams getting off schedule on short weeks, and the Buffaloes have been a capable team offensively at times this season. With that said, Cody Kessler threw for seven TDs against Colorado last year and USC has been red-hot offensively of late. Look for that trend to continue here.
The Lowe Down: USC 45, Colorado 28
Saturday, November 14
Georgia (6-3) at Auburn (5-4) 11:00 a.m. CT
When tailback Terry Godwin scored from 28 yards out in the first quarter of Georgia’s 27-3 win over Kentucky, it snapped a string of eight quarters without a TD for the usually high-powered Dawgs. So it’s safe to say UGA has been struggling to score points of late. And that may be what gets Mark Richt’s team beat Saturday.
It’s unclear whether it will be Sean White (knee; practiced after sitting out last week’s game) or Jeremy Johnson who’ll get the call behind center for Auburn Saturday, but the Tigers running game and passing attack is operating at a much higher level than it was earlier in the year, which has keyed the improved play. A lot of that is a result of the Tigers’ offensive line, but White has been good and Johnson, who was cast to the bench due to poor play following the LSU game, looked great in last week’s win over the Aggies. At his weekly press conference Tuesday, head coach Gus Malzahn said he “was confident in both of them.”
Both teams have had their struggles at QB this year, a position that can ill-afford struggles in the rugged SEC, but the emergence of Jovon Robinson at tailback for Auburn, along with its improved play on defense, will be the reason the Tigers trump the Dawgs.
The Lowe Down: Georgia 23, Auburn 27
No. 2 Alabama (8-1) at No. 17 Mississippi State (7-2) 2:30 p.m. CT Weather Forecast: Sunny, cool
Alabama was impressive in its dominating win over LSU a weekend ago but it must avoid a letdown in Starkville if it wants to remain the frontrunner in the SEC West race.
Last year the Crimson Tide picked off Bulldogs’ QB Dak Prescott three times in a 25-20 win over Dan Mullen’s team. The victory was a big one at the time considering it vaulted Alabama back into the national championship picture and handed top-ranked MSU its first loss of the season.
This Saturday, Prescott and his teammates have a chance to redeem themselves for last year’s painful defeat by exacting a little revenge. For that to happen, MSU, which lacks a significant run game, will have to challenge the Crimson Tide through the air early and often. MSU will run it every now and then to keep the Bama defense honest, but if the Bulldogs have any shot at winning this game Prescott will need to make plays with his arm and legs.
Look, running on Alabama is nearly impossible. But State’s receiving corps, which features big-play wideouts De’Runnya Wilson (6-5, 225) and Fred Ross (6-2, 207), could give Alabama’s talented secondary problems. But in order for that to happen, MSU’s offensive line will have to give Prescott time to throw. And with the running game basically an afterthought for Crimson Tide defenders that could be a problem.
The Lowe Down: Alabama 24, Mississippi State 17
No. 12 Oklahoma (8-1) at No. 6 Baylor (8-0) 7:00 p.m. CT Weather Forecast: Scattered showers, cool
(copy by Anthony Giminio; my pick)
Oklahoma has been fantastic since its debacle against Texas, showing firepower and balance on the ground and through the air. The Sooners’ impressive play, coupled with Baylor having to start a true freshman, Jarrett Stidham, at quarterback, has made this look like a close game on paper.
Maybe. Maybe not.
Baylor has won the past two in the series by a combined score of 89-26, and it has taken three of the past four against OU. In 2011 in Waco — where this game will be played Saturday — Baylor won 45-38 despite being a 17-point underdog.
Backing the Bears here isn’t relying on a one-game trend. Baylor has baffled the Sooners’ defense in four consecutive seasons, averaging 42 points and 6.2 yards per play in that span. Stidham looked sharp in his first start last week, and while OU should provide more resistance than Kansas State did, it seems as if the Baylor offense is simply on autopilot. Everybody should have receiver Corey Coleman (20 touchdown receptions) on their Heisman list.
On the other hand, the Sooners will score against a questionable Baylor defense, so a rout like the past two seasons probably isn’t in the cards. But the betting line is only about three points. Baylor routinely carves up ranked teams at home, going 8-0 straight-up in the past five years in such games and covering all but one time.
It’s hard to go against the Bears in this spot.
The Lowe Down: Baylor 38, Oklahoma 28
Oregon (6-3) at No. 7 Stanford (8-1) 6:30 p.m. CT Weather Forecast: Clear, cool
For the past few years this has been one of the top games of the year in college football. And despite Oregon’s early-season struggles, the Ducks have won three in a row and four of their last five after opening the year 2-2.
One big key for UO’s resurgence has been improved play along the offensive line and in the running game. For whatever reason, Oregon failed to get its vaunted ground game going early in the year. But after piling up 477 yards rushing in last week’s 44-28 win over California, it’s safe to say the Ducks have made improvement in that area. Tailbacks Royce Freeman and Tony Brooks-James have combined to form a lethal one-two punch, while dynamic dual-threat Vernon Adams also contributes with his running ability. If the Ducks want to beat Stanford, then the aforementioned players must play well. UO will also need to turn the Cardinal over a couple of times defensively if it expects to pull the upset.
Cardinal’s QB Kevin Hogan might feel he has something to prove against Oregon. He completed 21 of 29 passes for 237 yards but had one interception and no touchdown passes in a 45-16 loss to the Ducks last season. He, along with the rest of his offensive mates, will need to be on top of their game in what figures to be a shutout in Palo Alto.
The Lowe Down: Oregon 34, Stanford 41
POTENTIAL BIG UPSETS:
Although No. 11 Florida (8-1) has already secured a trip to Atlanta for the SEC title game, it must be very careful on the road against a South Carolina team that’s playing fairly well despite a 3-6 record.
The Lowe Down: Florida 26, South Carolina 23
No. 21 Memphis (8-1) got taken to the woodshed by Navy last week, but look for the Tigers to bounce back and play well against No. 24 Houston (9-0), which sits atop the AAC West Division at 9-0. Justin Fuente’s defense had no answer for the Midshipmen’s triple-option offense in their 45-20 trouncing, but this week’s matchup with the Cougars sets up a little better for Memphis.
The Lowe Down: Memphis 31, Houston 34
Arkansas (5-4) has won three in a row and four of its last five and blanked the Tigers in Fayetteville last season. It will be interesting to see how Les Miles’ team responds after its butt-kicking at the hands of the Crimson Tide last week. No. 9. LSU (7-1) still has a lot to play for, but a loss here would all but eliminate it from SEC and national title contention.
The Lowe Down: Arkansas 27, LSU 30
MATCHUP TO WATCH:
Baylor (308.9 yard per game) and Oklahoma (211.3 yards per game) are two of the best rushing teams in America, so the play of both run defenses will be critical in determining the outcome of the game.
In other Saturday games:
Maryland 17 at No. 13 Michigan State 34
Pitt 26 at Duke 23
Tulane 23 at Army 27
Purdue 24 at No. 18 Northwestern 30
No. 3 Ohio State 48 at Illinois 17
NC State 23 at No. 16 Florida State 37
Utah State 29 at Air Force 33
No. 1 Clemson 38 at Syracuse 23
No. 14 Michigan 30 at Indiana 17
SMU 24 at No. 20 Navy 40
Miami 20 at No. 23 North Carolina 36
No. 8 Oklahoma State 42 at Iowa State 20
Wake Forest 13 at No. 4 Notre Dame 49
No. 10 Utah 38 at Arizona 23
Oregon State 19 at Cal 38
Washington State 30 at No. 19 UCLA 37
