Nov 14, 2015; Ames, IA, USA; Oklahoma State Cowboys quarterback J.W. Walsh (4) runs with the ball against the Iowa State Cyclones at Jack Trice Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Steven Branscombe-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to Week 12 of The Lowe Down.
With a lot at stake and the regular season winding down, will the real Ohio State please stand up?
Yeah, yeah, I know the Buckeyes are undefeated and are in great position to secure their second trip to the College Football Playoff in as many seasons, but Urban Meyer’s team just doesn’t look like its clicking on all cylinders heading into its two toughest regular season games.
Metaphorically speaking, the Buckeyes’ methodical approach on the gridiron could be compared to a pride of lionesses stalking their prey in the tall grass of the Serengeti Plains. It’s hasn’t been a flashy approach by any means, but it’s been persistent and effective and has ultimately put Urban Meyer’s team in position to repeat as national champs.
And from here on out, all eyes will be on the Buckeyes considering their final two games, and potentially a third, will be against good teams. But there’s a reason why lions are the kings, and queens, of the jungle. And if Ohio State plays up to its expectation level, the Buckeyes may become the kings of college football for a second straight year.
Last week’s record was 17-6, bringing the yearly record to 155-50. To the games we go…
Friday, November 19
Air Force (7-3) at Boise State (7-3) 8:30 p.m. CT
All the Falcons, winners of five of their last six games, have to do to land a spot in the Mountain West title game is beat Boise State and New Mexico. Now granted, that won’t be easy, but Air Force has been hot and a big win over the Broncos would create a ton of momentum for the regular season finale against the Lobos, which will also be on the road.
Air Force is a fantastic running team and is the only squad in the country that has not allowed a sack this season, but its defense will be tested by Boise QB Brett Rypien through the air early and often. Conversely, Falcons’ QB Karson Roberts has been playing well, so look for this to be an entertaining game with a lot of points.
The Lowe Down: Air Force 34, Boise State 31
In other Friday games:
Cincinnati 30 at South Florida 34
Saturday, November 20
Michigan (8-2) at Penn State (7-3) 11:00 a.m. CT
Penn State is fresh off a bye week and is licking its chops to avenge an 18-13 loss to Michigan last season on the road. The Nittany Lions have a shot at double-digit wins this season with a win over Jim Harbaugh’s 14th-ranked Wolverines, so expect James Franklin’s team to play well.
The Lowe Down: Michigan 23, Penn State 24
No. 9 Michigan State (9-1) at No. 3 Ohio State (10-0) 3:30 pm. ET Weather Forecast: Rain, windy
Now is the time for Ohio State to rise to the occasion and prove why it was picked by almost every media outlet in the preseason, including Lindy’s, to win the national title. And it starts with a home game against rival Michigan State.
In last week’s 24-7 win over Maryland, Spartans’ QB Connor Cook injured his shoulder, but he’s insisted throughout the week that it won’t be a problem. His health will be critical to MSU’s chances considering backup Tyler O’Connor has limited experience behind center – and the Buckeyes would have a huge advantage if Cook is forced to leave the game.
Ohio State’s quarterback position has been a revolving door for most of the season, but the Buckeyes offense moves best with J.T. Barrett behind center. Barrett runs OSU’s zone-read plays to a T, and the fact that defenses have to respect him with the ball in his hands makes Ezekiel Elliot that much more effective.
Elliot, a Heisman candidate and one of the nation’s top players, has rushed for at least 100 yards in 15 straight games and is always a play away from going the distance.
One key matchup to watch in this pivotal game will be Michigan State’s rushing attack, led by LJ Scott and Gerald Holmes, against Ohio State’s run defense. The Buckeyes have allowed just 58 yards rushing in their last two games. If the Spartans can’t get the run game going, then all the weight of MSU’s season will fall on the right arm of Cook, who has passed for 2,482 yards and 21 TDs with just four interceptions.
Expect sloppy weather in this one, which gives more of an advantage to Ohio State.
The Lowe Down: Michigan State 20, Ohio State 35
USC (7-3) at Oregon (7-3) 2:30 p.m. CT Weather Forecast: Clear, cool
Way back in the preseason, USC at Oregon looked like the Game of the Year in the Pac-12. Kind of still is.
Neither team is playing for the stakes it hoped for — the College Football Playoff — but the league title is very much in play. The Trojans control their destiny in the Pac-12 South (needing to beat Oregon and UCLA), while Oregon stayed alive last week by upsetting Stanford, which still leads the North by a game.
USC has won four in a row after losing at Notre Dame in the debut of interim head coach Clay Helton. Players love him. One troubling trend: The Trojans have trailed in the first quarter of each of his games and fell behind 14-0 against two out-manned teams — Arizona and Colorado — in the past two weeks before squeezing out a victory.
Can’t do that against Oregon.
The Trojans also lost their leading tackler, linebacker Cameron Smith, and his backup, Lamar Dawson, to injury last week. Star receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster is dealing with the effects of hand surgery.
Oregon, meanwhile, looks like Oregon again, thanks to the health of quarterback Vernon Adams Jr. The Ducks unleashed huge plays in beating Stanford, and Adams was a big part of that.
Under Helton, USC has done a better job of attacking the opposing quarterback and getting sacks. That’s harder to do against the escapability of Adams, who is among the best at buying time while keeping his eyes down field to his big-play targets.
Yep. Oregon looks like Oregon — and that means winning in Autzen.
The Lowe Down: Oregon 35, USC 27
No. 10 Baylor (8-1) at No. 6 Oklahoma State (10-0) 6:30 p.m. CT Weather Forecast: Clear, cold, breezy
Losing star quarterback Seth Russell was a major blow to Baylor’s national title chances. And after losing to Oklahoma on their home turf last week, the Bears may be staring down a rough finish with a true freshman at quarterback and a porous run defense serving as red flags.
Oklahoma State enters this game riding high after rallying to beat Iowa State on the road last week. Quarterbacks Mason Rudolph, the team’s starter, and J.W. Walsh, who is used primarily as a runner, spearheaded the comeback. Rudolph passed for 327 yards and a score, while Walsh added the game-winning TD pass and two scoring runs, one of which came from 16 yards out early in the fourth quarter to cut the Cyclones lead to 31-28.
No team in America has a more unique QB situation than the Cowboys.
Conversely, Baylor quarterback Jarrett Stidham hasn’t played bad in the absence of Russell (he passed for 257 yards and two TDs with two interceptions against Oklahoma), but he’s only started two collegiate games and shouldn’t be expected to be the savior of the Bears season. Throw in the fact that he injured his back last week and he’s about to face a team that can get after the passer, and all signs point to the Cowboys picking up this win at home, where they are awfully tough to beat.
The Lowe Down: Oklahoma State 41, Baylor 34
POTENTIAL BIG UPSET
No. 17 North Carolina (9-1) has been on a roll of late but Larry Fedora’s club will need to be sharp when it travels to Blacksburg to take on Virginia Tech (5-5) at 11 a.m. It will be legendary coach Frank Beamer’s last home game and you can rest assured the Hokie players will lay it all on the line for their leader. But will it be enough to stop the Tar Heels?
The Lowe Down: North Carolina 30, Virginia Tech 27
In other Saturday games:
Purdue 14 at No. 5 Iowa 38
No. 21 Memphis 28 at Temple 26
Georgia Tech 23 at Miami 30
FAU 14 at No. 8 Florida 35
UCLA 31 at No. 13 Utah 34
No. 15 LSU 17 at No. 22 Ole Miss 24
No. 20 Northwestern 27 at No. 25 Wisconsin 24
No. 19 Houston 26 at UConn 20
Wake Forest 10 at No. 1 Clemson 48
Idaho 13 at Auburn 38
Charleston Southern 7 at No. 2 Alabama 55
Mississippi State 20 at Arkansas 30
Tennessee 27 at Missouri 23
Boston College 14 vs. No. 4 Notre Dame 31 (Fenway Park)
Cal 28 at No. 11 Stanford 34
Colorado 23 at Washington State 38
