Blake Sims leads a potent Alabama offense. (Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports)
The first College Football Playoff national championship is Alabama’s to lose and at this point, don’t bet on it being lost.
Sure, there’s still a lot of football to be played and, of course, Crimson Tide coaches will downplay their chances and stress the pitfalls.
But, based on the most important factors … the team’s recent on-the-field performances and the remaining schedule … it will be a surprise if another national title doesn’t end up in Tuscaloosa in January. Already, the odds makers in Vegas are moving in that direction.
Here’s how things shape up heading into November with just five regular season Saturdays to go.
Only three teams remain undefeated … Florida State, the defending national champion; Mississippi State, ranked No. 1 for just two weeks in the past 120 years; and Marshall, a really good team that has zero chance to be considered for a College Football Playoff final four spot.
The Seminoles have the least difficult road into the final quartet. Of course, they could lose at Louisville this week, and there is an ACC Championship Game, but FSU will be a solid favorite every time.
The Southeastern Conference, especially the Western Division, is another story. There are 17 teams with just one loss, and four of them are in the SEC. Georgia from the East is a lock for the conference championship game because it’s a good team, and because there isn’t another good team in the division.
Comparing Alabama, Ole Miss, Mississippi State and Auburn, the Tide has the clearest path to the championship.
Alabama does still play three teams ranked in this week’s Associated Press poll, but two of them are at Bryant-Denney Stadium (No. 1 State and No. 4 Auburn). The only ranked team away from home is No. 16 LSU, which did prove dangerous in the win over Ole Miss. But, keep things in perspective. State controlled the entire game against LSU in Baton Rouge, and Auburn romped in a 41-7 massacre. Do you really think a team that was demolished in those two games has a good chance to beat the Alabama team that scored 86 consecutive points in big wins over Texas A&M and Tennessee in its last two outings? After a game lost to Ole Miss, and a game they should have lost to Arkansas, the Tide has been on a roll and will be favored in every remaining contest.
Ole Miss has the next best shot, playing two ranked teams (State and Auburn) both at home, and having the head-to-head advantage over Alabama.
Mississippi State, the only undefeated team, will find it tough to stay that way. It’s only remaining games against ranked teams are in Tuscaloosa and Oxford.
Auburn has the “best road win” of any title contender, the win over Kansas State in Manhattan, and has the “best loss” falling only to top-ranked Mississippi State. It may be the best team, but it also faces the most difficult challenge of any ranked team in the country, much less in the SEC.
During the month of November, the Tigers play No. 7 Ole Miss, No. 9 Georgia and No. 3 Alabama … all on the road. Almost forgotten is a home game with dangerous Texas A&M. This may be the most difficult month ever played in college football. Add road games already played at No. 1 Mississippi State and No. 11 K-State, and Auburn may have the most difficult schedule ever played – five of the Top 11 teams, all away from home. If Auburn runs that table, just concede the national championship to those guys … but don’t count on that happening.
How about the other one-loss teams?
TCU, Kansas State and Baylor from the Big 12 still face challenges. TCU, with a loss to Baylor, doesn’t have a mulligan to give, so the Horned Frogs game against West Virginia in Morgantown on Saturday is gigantic. Baylor still plays at Oklahoma, while Kansas State still has to play at TCU, at West Virginia and at Baylor. The Bears have the best shot at staying one-loss.
Four Pac-12 teams are in the mix … Oregon, Utah and in-state rivals Arizona and Arizona State. Oregon looks to be the best, but they’ve already lost to Arizona. The Utes still have to play the other three. The Wildcats and Sun Devils square off to end the regular season, and don’t forget this one – Notre Dame, ranked No. 6 with only a loss in Tallahassee, plays in Tempe against ASU on Nov. 8, the best chance, along with a game at USC in late November, for the Irish to lose again. Oregon and Arizona State don’t meet in the regular season, but could play in the Pac-12 Championship Game.
Michigan State, Ohio State and Nebraska in the Big Ten still have just one loss. The Spartans fell at Oregon in early September, and entertain Ohio State next Saturday. The winner of that game probably won’t lose again before the league championship game. The Cornhuskers should be the competition, entering the title game with just a loss to Michigan State.
The other two once-defeated teams are non-factors – Duke (a distant, distant second best in the ACC) and East Carolina (with the same chances as Marshall).
That’s it.
There’s still so much football to play, so many teams with just one loss, so many head-to-head elimination games to decimate the list.
But, one thing is certain. Unless every SEC team has two losses, a conference team will play in one of the College Football Playoff semi-final games. That should be the Alabama-Georgia winner. But, there are just too many other one-loss teams. Even though the best four teams in the country may be from the SEC, it’s not likely that more than one league team will make the final group.
That team will be the odds-on favorite to win the national championship. And, that team will likely be Alabama.
