SEC INSIDER

Auburn dodges bullet, but more shots coming

Lyn Scarbrough

September 16, 2012 at 5:23 pm.

Cody Parkey (36) celebrates with teammates after making the game-winning field goal in overtime. (John Reed-US PRESSWIRE)

Auburn dodged a third bullet against Louisiana-Monroe on Saturday. After taking crippling shots from Clemson and Mississippi State, if the Warhawks had hit the mark, it would likely have been fatal.

Kolton Browning, the ULM quarterback who was named the NRA/Lindy’s Gunslinger of the Week for his 412-yard passing performance in his team’s win at Arkansas a week earlier, certainly fired enough shots in Jordan-Hare. He threw 46 passes, gaining 237 yards, but 18 missed their target.

It wasn’t a pretty win. There were enough mistakes to meet the quota for several games. A long touchdown pass was called back by a penalty. A fumble was lost near the ULM goal line when Auburn had a 28-14 lead. Two Warhawks’ scoring drives were kept alive by Tiger penalties; one after a fourth-down pass had fallen incomplete.

Overall, Auburn improved over the performance seven days before in Starkville. In the first half, quarterback Kiehl Frazier was sharp passing and seemed to be in control of the game’s flow. At the point when the Tigers were ready to punch in their fifth touchdown of the day, and build a 21-point lead, freshman tailback Mike Blakely lost a fumble inside the La.-Monroe 5-yard line and the wind went right out of Auburn’s sails.

A likely three-touchdown lead then evaporated as Frazier became totally ineffective, the defense couldn’t make the big play, and Monroe seized the momentum. As has been the case in every game this season, the Tigers were not strong down the stretch.

Cody Parkey, who has quickly put his name on the list of the country’s best kickers, hit a 35-yard field goal in overtime to secure the 31-28 victory.

So, what happens next? Auburn did improve between Week Two and Week Three offensively and defensively. But, they have no chance to win on Saturday night at home against LSU unless they improve much more during this week … and I’m not sure how much chance they have even if they do improve that much. With another dominating performance over an outmanned opponent (Idaho), the Bengal Tigers are in position to play for another national championship, if they just keep winning.

But, Auburn’s improvement against ULM at least gives a glimmer of hope for the rest of the 2012 campaign.

At this point, games against LSU, Georgia and Alabama look like sure losses. Games against New Mexico State and Alabama A&M should be sure wins. Auburn will have to win three of their other four games in order to qualify for a postseason bowl.

Arkansas now at least looks beatable, where that didn’t seem probable just two weeks ago. The teams play in Jordan-Hare in two more weeks. It’s likely that injured all-star quarterback Tyler Wilson could be back for that one, but how effective will he be? And, Auburn has an off week to prepare for the Hogs.

Ole Miss looks better this season under new head coach Hugh Freeze, but the Rebels two wins have been over Central Arkansas and Texas-El Paso. When that other Texas team – the one from Austin – came to Oxford on Saturday night, the Rebels gave up 66 and lost by 35.

Vanderbilt hasn’t been as impressive as predicted, joining Auburn with a 0-2 start before defeating Presbyterian.  That win was by 58 points … but it was Presbyterian. Head coach James Franklin does have an improved Commodore squad and the game against the Tigers is in Nashville. Still, that one is winnable.

Texas A&M comes to the Plains in late October, their first game in Alabama as a Southeastern Conference member. The Aggies are good, but the game is in Jordan-Hare and the Florida Gators proved in Week Two that A&M isn’t invincible.

Now, if Auburn can just win three of those four. That scenario still doesn’t seem likely. But, finally there’s at least a glimmer of hope, regardless of how bad things turn out this coming Saturday night.