SCARBROUGH'S TAKE

Looking Back and Ahead, An Epic AU/State Matchup

Lyn Scarbrough

October 08, 2014 at 12:08 pm.

Not much stands out about the day itself – the ninth day of November, 57 years ago.

I don’t remember anything about the weather or the news headlines that day.

Stopping Auburn's Nick Marshall can be a tough task for any defense. (Shanna Lockwood-USA TODAY Sports)

But, it was significant for me – my first college football game, Mississippi State and Auburn at Legion Field in Birmingham. I was there with my father, who played football for coaches Shug Jordan and Jack Meagher at Auburn more than two decades earlier. Ivy Gwin, the deputy tax assessor and funeral home owner from Rock Creek, sat with us and provided the tickets.

Mississippi State, called the Maroons back then, was 5-1, ranked No. 17, with only an early five-point loss to Tennessee. Auburn, which was still officially Alabama Polytechnic Institute, was undefeated and ranked third.

Billy Stacy, a dual-threat quarterback, sort of a Dak Prescott of his day, was State’s leader. The Bulldogs scored a late second quarter touchdown to take a 7-0 halftime lead. The Tigers dominated after intermission, won the game 15-7, and went on to win the 1957 national championship.

Since that November afternoon, Auburn and Mississippi State have played every season, and only twice have both teams entered the game nationally ranked. That’s two times in 57 years! Neither of those games held a candle to what will happen in Davis Wade Stadium on Saturday.

Never before has a game in this series, or any game against anybody in Starkville for that matter, been this big with the stakes this high, the spotlight this bright, the hype this out of control. ESPN Gameday will be there for the first time ever. Reportedly, standing room only tickets are available for $200 each. The winner may well be ranked No. 1 when the new polls come out on Sunday.

It’s third-ranked Mississippi State hosting second-ranked Auburn on Scott Field with the SEC West, the conference title and the College Football Playoff national championship all in play for both teams at the midway point of the season.

Who would have ever imagined?

Looking back over history, the answer would be nobody!

Historically, this has been programs going in different directions.

According to the Stassen.com web site, over the past 60 seasons, Auburn ranks No. 9 nationally, winning 68.6 percent of its games. State ranks No. 87, winning just under 43 percent. Make it the past 30 years and Auburn again is No. 9 with a 69.4 winning percentage. The Bulldogs are up to No. 77, winning just over 46 percent during that span. Since the 2000 season, the Tigers have been the 12th winningest team in the country. Mississippi State comes in at 85th.

Since 1990, only two teams have posted three undefeated seasons – Nebraska and Auburn. Mississippi State has just one undefeated season when it played at least eight games in its 120-year history, the 10-0-1 mark posted by the 1940 team. The only blemish … a 7-7 tie with Auburn.

There’s more, but there’s no need to rehash it. You get the picture.

But, don’t be fooled by history. This isn’t your daddy’s Mississippi State, as they say. Dan Mullen’s Bulldogs have experience and depth. They have strength and speed. And, most importantly, they believe they can win and they’ve proven it already. A win over Auburn on Saturday would be State’s third this season over a team that was ranked in the Top 10 when they played the Bulldogs.

Both teams have impressive 2014 statistics, playing against similar competition. Both comfortably defeated LSU. Both won at home against another SEC West opponent (Texas A&M and Arkansas). Auburn’s win at ranked Kansas State is the only significant schedule difference.

Here are some of the numbers … The Bulldogs are second nationally in red zone defense; Auburn is eighth. State is sixth in third-down conversion defense; the Tigers are 15th. The Bulldogs are 11th in rushing defense and 13th in scoring offense. The Tigers are 13th in rushing defense and 15th in scoring offense. State is 13th in rushing offense; Auburn is 14th.

Again, you get the picture.

There are some statistics significantly in Auburn’s favor. Mississippi State has given up almost 130 more passing yards per game. Converting third down chances, the Tigers rank third, while the Bulldogs rank 68th. In total defense, Auburn is 14th; State is 84th. Auburn ranks fourth in punt returns compared to State at 70th. And, the Tigers lead the nation, scoring 100 percent of the time from the red zone.  

Still, most any way that you evaluate this game and compare the teams, it’s a hard match-up to figure. In one with so much on the line, what will make the difference?

Could it be home field advantage? This promises to be the largest and loudest crowd in stadium history. How much noise can 50,000 cow bells make! The last time the Tigers played there, they lost by 18 points.

Could it be quarterback play? Dak Prescott is already being discussed as a Heisman Trophy contender. A win here and he becomes one of the favorites. He’s a dual-threat, an elusive runner, strong-armed passer and acknowledged team leader. Of course, that also describes Nick Marshall, the quarterback on the other side.

Could it be team confidence? Finally, the home team has its swagger back. State is playing like a team that thinks it will win. Auburn, with 17 wins in its last 19 games including eight over ranked teams, has played that way for two seasons.

Could it be emotion? Both teams had gigantic SEC West wins last Saturday and were rewarded with big jumps in the polls. How well will the coaching staffs get their teams back down to earth focusing on the next one and how well will their fans follow suit?

Or could it just be that the stars are aligning for Mississippi State? Could this be a team of destiny? Could Mississippi State be this year’s Auburn?

First, the Bulldogs have to beat this year’s Auburn … in the biggest game ever on Scott Field in Davis Wade Stadium. The biggest game in Mississippi State history.

My dad and Ivy Gwin would have enjoyed seeing this one.

 

 

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