The Tennessee Titans have become the NFL’s version of a college basketball team that is always on the bubble as the year ends.
For the third straight season, Tennessee faces a win-and-in scenario for an AFC wild-card spot in Week 17. This year, it will have to go on the road for its critical game, visiting the Houston Texans.
The Titans (8-7) control their situation entirely. Beat the Texans and they are in the playoffs, no questions asked. Lose to Houston, however, and they’ll need a Baltimore victory over Pittsburgh and a loss by Indianapolis (at Jacksonville) to make the postseason field.
Tennessee could have escaped the tension of a must-win game before the playoffs, but lost 24-21 two weeks ago at home to the Texans in a first-place showdown in the AFC South. Houston then clinched the division Saturday with a 23-20 win at Tampa Bay.
With that result in the books before their game against New Orleans — and knowing that the game against the Saints meant nothing practically — the Titans opted to rest running back Derrick Henry (hamstring). They led 14-0 in the first quarter but lost 38-28, although the Steelers’ loss to the New York Jets improved Tennessee’s playoff standing.
Second-year coach Mike Vrabel says his team’s preparation won’t change just because of the game’s importance, or the fact they’re facing the Texans for the second time in 15 days.
“At this point in the season, you try to find the things you do well and continue to do them, and you add a little bit of wrinkles and make sure you’re technically sound,” Vrabel said. “You find a way to play with great effort and finish while not being at 100 percent, which is what most teams in the NFL are right now.”
Meanwhile, Houston (10-5) still has something at stake. If it wins and Kansas City loses at home to the Los Angeles Chargers, Houston can jump to the third seed for the AFC playoffs based on its regular-season win over the Chiefs in October.
The Texans will know before their game starts if they can move up or not, but coach Bill O’Brien has implied his team won’t rest starters, even if there’s nothing to gain from the game’s outcome.
“We know that we’re in the playoffs, we know that Tennessee has to win to get into the playoffs, and we need to go out there and be ready to play this game to win,” O’Brien said. “I think that’s the most important thing this week.”
Houston’s defense could add a significant piece for its first playoff game. Its best player, end J.J. Watt, returned to practice this week. While he won’t play Sunday, he seems to be on track to return to action barely two months after tearing a pectoral muscle in a Week 8 win over Oakland.
Even if Watt isn’t at full strength, his presence might improve a pass rush that hasn’t been the same without Watt or the traded Jadeveon Clowney. The Texans’ 31 sacks rank 25th in the NFL, and Watt’s four in a half-season are more than any other teammate except Whitney Mercilus.
