Stopping Rob Gronkowski (87) can be frustrating. Photo Credit: Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY Sports
New England Patriots (13-4) at Denver Broncos (13-4)
Sunday, 3:05 p.m. ET, at Sports Authority Field at Mile High, Denver – TV: CBS
*TV announcers: Phil Simms, Jim Nantz, Tracy Wolfson
*Keys to the game: For the Broncos, it starts with avoiding mistakes and running the ball effectively, as was the case in the Week 12 overtime win over New England. The Broncos ran the ball 32 times for 179 yards in that game to prop up QB Brock Osweiler.
The Broncos played just their second turnover-free game of the season last Sunday against Pittsburgh — and their first one with Peyton Manning at quarterback. He has nine touchdowns and 16 interceptions and just one touchdown pass in this stadium all season (Tom Brady has three).
How enormous is the turnover margin, which was even in the first meeting? The Patriots are 15-0 in the playoffs and 144-12 overall under coach Bill Belichick when winning the turnover battle, and have won 35 of their past 37 games when doing so. They’re also 15-0 in the postseason under Belichick in that scenario.
Drops plagued Manning last week — seven by the count of the Broncos — and Denver cannot afford to surrender downs. Their offense has been more efficient with Manning in the past five-plus quarters, averaging 30.97 points per 60 minutes since he relieved Osweiler against the Chargers. But they have struggled in scoring range, and have more than twice as many field goals (seven) as touchdowns (three).
Brady has been a monster in the red zone this season — 29 touchdowns, three interceptions — thanks to super-sized TE Rob Gronkowski (13 TDs including playoffs). Without a constant at running back, Brady’s quick throws within 5-7 yards of the line of scrimmage serve as New England’s running game. The Broncos will blitz to get pressure and have an NFL-high 52 sacks, but primarily Denver relies on Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware to shrink the pocket.
Getting to Brady is a boost for the Broncos, giving CB Aqib Talib (three interceptions) opportunities to make a play on the ball. They recorded pressures on 40 percent of Brady’s drop-backs in Week 12, and his completion percentage on those plays was 26.7 percent according to Stats Inc.
The risk is not getting there, and having Brady pick apart the defense with extra receivers, as he did against Kansas City in the divisional playoff win. If the Patriots can build a lead and force Manning to throw to win, New England likes its chances.
*Matchup to watch – Broncos CB Chris Harris Jr. vs. Patriots WR Julian Edelman: Two of the best in the business when healthy, it is debatable whether either is full strength. Harris led the Broncos in snaps played in the regular season (97.6 percent) but was limited to sub packages against Pittsburgh last week because of a bum shoulder.
New England hasn’t lost a game in which Edelman has played this season, and its offense is vastly more efficient when he is on the field, scoring 12.45 more points per 60 minutes with Edelman. He caught 10 passes for 100 yards last week, his first game since Nov. 15. If Harris cannot be his usual physical self and Edelman is gaining a free release, defensive coordinator Wade Phillips is likely to sit Harris.
*Player spotlight – Broncos LB Brandon Marshall: Unheralded relative to the other defensive players on the NFL’s top defense, Marshall and WLB Danny Trevathan key a pass defense that allows less than 200 yards per game by taking away the short-area release valves Brady so often finds in the face of pressure.
*Fast facts: The Patriots are in the AFC Championship Game for the fifth consecutive season, which ties the 1973-77 Oakland Raiders for the NFL record. … Manning is 2-2 in the postseason against Brady, including 2-0 since 2004. … Edelman has 36 receptions in his past four playoff games.
WHO WILL WIN AND WHY
Motivated by the mandible muscles of the chatty Broncos, Patriots QB Tom Brady puts on a vintage effort against the NFL’s leading defense and a late Denver rally comes up short.
*Our pick: Patriots 26-22.
