SCARBROUGH'S TAKE

Will Ole Miss, Arkansas, Kentucky Join the SEC Elite?

Lyn Scarbrough

September 28, 2021 at 1:57 pm.

It has been quite a run for Southeastern Conference football these past 18 seasons.

You want to know why college football fans in a lot of places around the country so badly dislike SEC football? It’s easy to understand. Consider this:

Since the 2003 season, when head coach Nick Saban led LSU to a 21-14 win over Oklahoma in the Sugar Bowl to claim the national title, SEC teams have dominated the national championship games.

Eighteen times an SEC team has played for the national title. Alabama has been in that game eight times, winning six, but the wealth has been spread around. LSU has played four times, winning three. Florida has played twice and won both. Auburn has played twice, won one title, plus had an undefeated season in 2004. And, Georgia played for the championship once.

That’s 12 national championships in the past 18 years. Twice two SEC teams have played against each other for the title. There have only been three seasons (2004, 2005, 2014) when an SEC team was not in the championship game.

Other conferences have had few championship contenders.

Two Big 12 teams have played in national title games … Oklahoma in four, Texas in two. Big Ten teams have played in four … every time Ohio State. There have been five games with Atlantic Coast Conference teams … Clemson four times, Florida State once. Three games have had Pac-12 teams … Oregon twice, USC once. And, Notre Dame (which is now quasi-ACC) played once as an Independent.

That’s five SEC teams playing 18 times, and all other teams playing 18 times.

That’s recent history. How about long-term?

In the past 70 seasons (more or less modern college football history), the top college team based on winning percentage has been Ohio State. Then, among SEC teams, Alabama ranks fourth, Georgia is 11th, Florida is 12th, Auburn is 13th and LSU is 15th. That’s five conference teams in the top 15. No other league comes close.

With all of that superiority, the SEC may have never been as dominant as it is right now.

In this week’s Coaches poll, eight SEC teams are ranked in the Top 23. That includes five of the seven teams in the Western Division. Three of those … Ole Miss (ranked No. 12 in the Coaches and Associated Press polls), Arkansas (No. 11 in the Coaches and No. 8 in the AP poll) and Kentucky (No. 23 in the Coaches poll) … have not been among the SEC’s elite programs.

On Saturday, those teams have their shot at changing that.

Ole Miss plays No. 1 Alabama.

Although the Crimson Tide owns the series record (52-10-2) and has won five in a row against the Rebels, this is a different Ole Miss team.

The Rebels lead the nation in total offense (635.3 yards per game), scoring offense (52.7 point per game), are fourth in rushing offense (298.7 yards per game) and are 11th in passing offense (336.7 yards per game). They lead Alabama in every offensive category. But, that side of the ball is not surprising. Last season, Ole Miss also led the nation in total offense.

The difference is with the defense. Last year, Ole Miss was statistically among the worst teams in college football. Not so this season. While still not a great defensive unit, the results are significantly improved.

Ole Miss surrenders 341 yards per game (59th nationally). It gives up 132.2 yards rushing (57th), 208.7 yards passing (53rd) and 22.7 points per game (61st). Those aren’t Alabama-type numbers, but when your offense is doing its thing, they don’t usually have to be. Those numbers represent moving up about 60 positions from 2020 games.

Will Ole Miss win in Tuscaloosa? Probably not. Bryant-Denney is not an easy place to win unless you’re wearing crimson and white. But, this one may not be the cakewalk that Tide fans sometimes get and usually expect. That line is anywhere from 14 to 17 points.

Arkansas faces a different challenge in Athens, Ga. No. 2 ranked Georgia is near the top in every defensive category nationally. It leads in total defense (181.8 yards per game), scoring defense (5.75 points per game), is second in passing defense (115.8 yards per game) and sixth in rushing defense (66 yards per game).

Offensively, the Bulldogs have been effective using two quarterbacks, JT Daniels and Stetson Bennett. They rank in the top 50 in every offensive category, but when your defense is doing its thing, that usually will be good enough.

Arkansas poses Georgia’s biggest challenge so far, including the Clemson team that almost lost to Georgia Tech and did lose to NC State. The Razorbacks’ offense features a talented multi-threat quarterback (KJ Jefferson), a solid running back (Trelon Smith) and the SEC’s top wide receiver (Treylon Burks). The defense features one of the best linebacker units in the SEC.

And, the Razorbacks have something else that they haven’t had in recent seasons … confidence. That happens when you have a 4-0 record, including double-digit wins over Texas and Texas A&M. These guys think they are going to win – and so far they have.

Will Arkansas win in Athens? Probably not. It’s not easy to win between the hedges. Georgia leads the series, 11-4, and the line on this one is 18-19 points.

And, don’t forget about Kentucky. It entertains Florida on Saturday and could make its own move with a win. The Wildcats are undefeated and ranked No. 23 this week. The bettors say the Gators are supposed to win that one by eight.

None of the upsets may happen. They probably won’t.

But, if they do, then Bama, Georgia, Florida, Auburn and LSU better be looking over their shoulders. That list of the SEC Elite could be getting a little larger, at least for the 2021 season.